AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sun Sep 27 · 2:30 AM
#38Away
Georgia Tech
0-0 · AVR 59.1
34p
#96Home
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
21p
GT 81%19% STAN
Spread
GT -12.8
Total
54
Moneyline
GT-417STAN+417
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GT advantageevenSTAN advantage →
GT throw
GT protection #23
GT +20
GT run
STAN front #97STAN linebackers #25
GT +29
STAN throw
STAN protection #61
GT +25
STAN run
STAN +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when GT runs
Justice Haynes
vs
Matt Rose
RB · GT
MLB · STAN
77.3
78.1
dead even
off the edge· hunting Mendoza
Will Reed
vs
Joe Asiain
LT · GT
EDGE · STAN
84.8
65.5
GT +19
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
Jonas Duclona
X · STAN
CB1 · GT
52.4
85.0
GT +33
when GT throws
Jordan Allen
vs
Jay Green
X · GT
CB1 · STAN
64.6
70.7
STAN +6
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Kyle Efford
RB · STAN
MLB · GT
64.3
60.9
STAN +3
off the edge· hunting Mirer
Nathan Mejia
vs
Brayden Manley
LT · STAN
EDGE · GT
52.8
59.3
GT +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia Tech
CBJonas Duclona
85.044/1427
CBJaylen Mbakwe
81.281/1427
RBJustice Haynes
77.331/514
WRJordan Allen
64.686/777
LBKyle Efford
60.9268/878
LBCayman Spaulding
60.1284/878
Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia Tech
opponent
Stanford
home+4.2
Duke#39
-16.1away
home+0.4
Louisville#28
-19.9away
home+6.1
Wake Forest#46
-14.2away
away+3.0
Virginia Tech#57
-12.3away

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 5
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGT +12.895% interval: -36.7 to 11.180% interval: -30.2 to 4.6-30+5GT wins 81%STAN wins 19%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ GT 35–21 STANSTAN 18–60 GT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSTAN 21–56 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 25–53 GT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSTAN 28–49 GT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSTAN 32–46 GT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 35–42 GT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 39–39 GT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSTAN 42–35 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSTAN 46–32 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 14–56 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 18–53 GT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSTAN 21–49 GT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSTAN 25–46 GT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSTAN 28–42 GT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSTAN 32–39 GT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSTAN 35–35 GT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSTAN 39–32 GT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 42–28 GT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 11–53 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 14–49 GT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 18–46 GT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSTAN 21–42 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSTAN 25–39 GT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSTAN 28–35 GT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 32–32 GT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 35–28 GT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 39–25 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 7–49 GT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 11–46 GT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 14–42 GT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 18–39 GT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 21–35 GT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSTAN 25–32 GT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSTAN 28–28 GT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSTAN 32–25 GT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 35–21 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 4–46 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 7–42 GT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 11–39 GT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 14–35 GT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSTAN 18–32 GT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSTAN 21–28 GT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSTAN 25–25 GT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSTAN 28–21 GT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 32–18 GT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 0–42 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 4–39 GT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSTAN 7–35 GT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSTAN 11–32 GT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSTAN 14–28 GT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 18–25 GT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSTAN 21–21 GT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 25–18 GT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSTAN 28–14 GT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)STAN 0–35 GT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSTAN 4–32 GT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSTAN 7–28 GT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 11–25 GT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSTAN 14–21 GT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSTAN 18–18 GT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSTAN 21–14 GT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSTAN 25–11 GT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalGT +42GT +28GT +14PKSTAN +14margin →