AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 PM
#71Away
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
27p
#72Home
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
31p
SYR 42%58% CONN
Spread
CONN -3.1
Total
58
Moneyline
SYR+139CONN-139
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SYR advantageevenCONN advantage →
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
even
SYR run
CONN linebackers #69
CONN +60
CONN throw
CONN +13
CONN run
CONN +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Tunmise Adeleye
LT · CONN
EDGE · SYR
77.4
80.3
dead even
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · CONN
MLB · SYR
62.7
80.0
SYR +17
when SYR runs
Malachi Coleman
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · SYR
MLB · CONN
42.7
93.3
CONN +51
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
Nazir Ward
X · CONN
CB1 · SYR
57.0
68.7
SYR +12
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
Jayden Davis
X · SYR
CB1 · CONN
54.3
71.1
CONN +17
off the edge· hunting Odom
Joe Cruz
vs
Esean Carter
LT · SYR
EDGE · CONN
34.8
87.3
CONN +52

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878
UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCONN +3.195% interval: -20.8 to 2780% interval: -14.3 to 20.5-14+21SYR wins 42%CONN wins 58%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CONN 28–28 SYRCONN 25–53 SYR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCONN 28–49 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 32–46 SYR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCONN 35–42 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 39–39 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCONN 42–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCONN 46–32 SYR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCONN 49–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 53–25 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 21–49 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 25–46 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 28–42 SYR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 32–39 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCONN 35–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCONN 39–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCONN 42–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 46–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCONN 49–21 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 18–46 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 21–42 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 25–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 28–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 32–32 SYR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCONN 35–28 SYR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCONN 39–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 42–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 46–18 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 14–42 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 18–39 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 21–35 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 25–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 28–28 SYR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCONN 32–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCONN 35–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 39–18 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 42–14 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 11–39 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 14–35 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 18–32 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 21–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 25–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCONN 28–21 SYR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCONN 32–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCONN 35–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 39–11 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 7–35 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 11–32 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 14–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCONN 18–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 21–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 25–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 28–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 32–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCONN 35–7 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 4–32 SYR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCONN 7–28 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 11–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCONN 14–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 18–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 21–14 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 25–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 28–7 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCONN 32–4 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalSYR +28SYR +14PKCONN +14CONN +28margin →