AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#79Away
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
23p
#38Home
Georgia Tech
0-0 · AVR 59.1
35p
BC 21%79% GT
Spread
GT -11.9
Total
58
Moneyline
BC+381GT-381
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BC advantageevenGT advantage →
BC throw
BC +4
BC run
BC +26
GT throw
GT protection #23
GT +24
GT run
GT +32

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mendoza
Will Reed
vs
Josiah Griffin
LT · GT
EDGE · BC
84.8
75.6
GT +9
when GT runs
Justice Haynes
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · GT
MLB · BC
77.3
75.5
dead even
when BC throws
Dawson Pough
vs
Jonas Duclona
X · BC
CB1 · GT
55.9
85.0
GT +29
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Kyle Efford
RB · BC
MLB · GT
79.5
60.9
BC +19
when GT throws
Jordan Allen
vs
Kameron Howard
X · GT
CB1 · BC
64.6
75.7
BC +11
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Reggie Jackson
vs
Brayden Manley
LT · BC
EDGE · GT
62.7
59.3
BC +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878
Georgia Tech
CBJonas Duclona
85.044/1427
CBJaylen Mbakwe
81.281/1427
RBJustice Haynes
77.331/514
WRJordan Allen
64.686/777
LBKyle Efford
60.9268/878
LBCayman Spaulding
60.1284/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Boston College
opponent
Georgia Tech
away-10.3
Duke#39
+4.2home
home-1.4
Virginia Tech#57
+3.0away
home-7.4
Pittsburgh#33
-3.0away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGT +11.995% interval: -12 to 35.880% interval: -5.5 to 29.3-5+29BC wins 21%GT wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ GT 35–21 BCGT 32–46 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 35–42 BC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGT 39–39 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGT 42–35 BC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGT 46–32 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGT 49–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 53–25 BC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGT 56–21 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 60–18 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGT 28–42 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 32–39 BC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGT 35–35 BC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 39–32 BC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGT 42–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGT 46–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGT 49–21 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGT 53–18 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 56–14 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 25–39 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 28–35 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 32–32 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGT 35–28 BC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGT 39–25 BC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGT 42–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGT 46–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGT 49–14 BC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 53–11 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 21–35 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 25–32 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGT 28–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGT 32–25 BC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGT 35–21 BC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGT 39–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGT 42–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGT 46–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGT 49–7 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 18–32 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 21–28 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 25–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGT 28–21 BC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGT 32–18 BC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGT 35–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGT 39–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGT 42–7 BC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 46–4 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 14–28 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 18–25 BC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 21–21 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 25–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 28–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGT 32–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGT 35–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 39–4 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 42–0 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGT 11–25 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 14–21 BC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 18–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 21–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 25–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 28–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGT 32–4 BC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 35–0 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalBC +14PKGT +14GT +28GT +42margin →