AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#27Away
Clemson
0-0 · AVR 65.6
33p
#71Home
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
22p
CLEM 79%21% SYR
Spread
CLEM -11.5
Total
54
Moneyline
CLEM-370SYR+370
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CLEM advantageevenSYR advantage →
CLEM throw
CLEM QB #108CLEM WR #31
CLEM +7
CLEM run
CLEM +16
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
CLEM +40
SYR run
CLEM +70

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Denson
Dietrick Pennington
vs
Tunmise Adeleye
LT · CLEM
EDGE · SYR
70.7
80.3
SYR +10
when CLEM runs
Chris Johnson Jr.
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · CLEM
MLB · SYR
68.0
80.0
SYR +12
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
Ashton Hampton
X · SYR
CB1 · CLEM
54.3
87.1
CLEM +33
when CLEM throws
T.J. Moore
vs
Nazir Ward
X · CLEM
CB1 · SYR
71.6
68.7
dead even
off the edge· hunting Odom
Joe Cruz
vs
Will Heldt
LT · SYR
EDGE · CLEM
34.8
102.2
CLEM +67
over the middle
Noah Meyers
vs
Branden Strozier
TE · SYR
FS · CLEM
53.0
76.1
CLEM +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Clemson
CBAshton Hampton
87.127/1427
SCorey Myrick
84.747/1427
SJerome Carter III
81.873/1427
LBSammy Brown
80.848/878
WRT.J. Moore
71.643/777
RBChris Johnson Jr.
68.068/514

also out — Clemson defensive tackle (DL), Former Clemson corner (CB), P. Streko (RB), Clemson, Clemson defensive back (DB), Clemson freshman standout, Clemson player, Clemson safety (S) +10 more

Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Clemson
opponent
Syracuse
home+12.7
North Carolina#61
-6.3away
away+10.9
California#68
+2.0home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCLEM +11.595% interval: -35.4 to 12.480% interval: -28.8 to 5.9-29+6CLEM wins 79%SYR wins 21%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CLEM 35–21 SYRSYR 18–60 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesSYR 21–56 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 25–53 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSYR 28–49 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSYR 32–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 35–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 39–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSYR 42–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 46–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 14–56 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSYR 18–53 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 21–49 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSYR 25–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSYR 28–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSYR 32–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSYR 35–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSYR 39–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSYR 42–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 11–53 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 14–49 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 18–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSYR 21–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSYR 25–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSYR 28–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSYR 32–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSYR 35–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSYR 39–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 7–49 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 11–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 14–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSYR 18–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSYR 21–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSYR 25–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSYR 28–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSYR 32–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSYR 35–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 4–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSYR 7–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSYR 11–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSYR 14–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSYR 18–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSYR 21–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSYR 25–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSYR 28–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSYR 32–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSYR 0–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSYR 4–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSYR 7–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSYR 11–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSYR 14–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSYR 18–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSYR 21–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSYR 25–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSYR 28–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SYR 0–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSYR 4–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSYR 7–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSYR 11–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSYR 14–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSYR 18–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSYR 21–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSYR 25–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalCLEM +42CLEM +28CLEM +14PKSYR +14margin →