CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
The Axe
#106Away
Stanford
2-4 · AVR 53.0
24p
#90Home
California
3-3 · AVR 56.1
28p
Forecast win probability
STAN 40.1%59.9% CAL
Projected margin
CAL by 4.0
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
STAN 15 to CAL 23
Win probability
CAL 59.9%

Current team profiles

Stanford
California

When Stanford has the ball

Passing

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
STAN offense
#88
CAL defense
#26
EPA comparison
0.14
#88
0.01
#26
Pass EPA

Rushing

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
STAN offense
#126
CAL defense
#122
EPA comparison
-0.08
#126
0.19
#122
Rush EPA

Drive success

CAL defense
Higher-ranked profile
STAN offense
#126
CAL defense
#36
Success rates
37%
#126
37%
#36
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#111
0.06
#70
EPA / play
1.20
#91
1.40
#128
Explosiveness
14%
#60
14%
#97
Havoc

When California has the ball

Passing

CAL offense
Higher-ranked profile
STAN defense
#136
CAL offense
#92
EPA comparison
0.47
#136
0.13
#92
Pass EPA

Rushing

CAL offense
Higher-ranked profile
STAN defense
#138
CAL offense
#123
EPA comparison
0.32
#138
-0.07
#123
Rush EPA

Drive success

CAL offense
Higher-ranked profile
STAN defense
#133
CAL offense
#113
Success rates
50%
#133
39%
#113
Success rate
More metrics
0.37
#138
0.01
#119
EPA / play
1.35
#117
1.28
#42
Explosiveness
11%
#131
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

Stanford
QBDavis Warren
1207 yds · 5 TD · 1 INT
70.0153/729
WRNico Brown
10 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
79.363/2069
RBTuna Altahir
8 yds · 0 TD · 4.0 YPC
75.3173/1044
LBGabe Kaminski
11 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.0
Coverage
70.9
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
61
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
73.2253/1796
CBBrandon Nicholson
9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.2
Coverage
74.5
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
57
Passer rating allowed
52.4
Missed tackles
2
72.6298/2969
WRCaden High
17 rec · 236 yds · 3 TD
72.3187/2069
Availability reports · 5
  • Niki Prongos · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Prongos is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aidan Kilstrom · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kilstrom is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Shaw · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Shaw is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Daylen Sharper · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sharper is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • London Bironas · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bironas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

California
QBDominic Ingrassia
— yds · — TD · — INT
76.3103/729
DBKingston Lopa
27 tkl · 1 PD · 5 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.6
Coverage
90.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
42.1
Missed tackles
6
85.523/2969
RBAdam Mohammed
336 yds · 3 TD · 4.6 YPC
78.5100/1044
DBCam Sidney
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
1
76.6142/2969
DBIsaiah Crosby
24 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
22.2
Missed tackles
3
76.3150/2969
LBJoshua Pierce
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.6301/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Adam Mohammed · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mohammed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is un determined if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sagapolutele is dealing with a head injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Vargas · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Vargas is dealing with a leg injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cole Boscia · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Boscia is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Rico Walker · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trevor Rogers · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rogers is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

STAN
CAL
vs
Offense
70.0
#100 of 138
QB
76.3
#77 of 138
73.3
#92 of 138
RB
73.2
#93 of 138
72.2
#56 of 138
WR
66.0
#128 of 138
57.5
#133 of 138
TE
57.9
#132 of 138
67.0
#79 of 138
OL
67.0
#78 of 138
Defense
65.3
#134 of 138
DL
70.3
#102 of 138
68.4
#119 of 138
LB
70.6
#99 of 138
68.3
#116 of 138
DB
77.1
#15 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Stanford
opponent
California
A-54.0
WAKE#26
-11.4H
A-10.9
VT#46
+5.0H
H-6.2
NCSU#63
-10.2A
H-16.7
SMU#39
-20.6A