AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
The Axe
#96Away
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
21p
#68Home
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
30p
STAN 26%74% CAL
Spread
CAL -9.2
Total
51
Moneyline
STAN+280CAL-280
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← STAN advantageevenCAL advantage →
STAN throw
STAN protection #61CAL coverage #52
CAL +19
STAN run
CAL linebackers #81
STAN +23
CAL throw
CAL protection #105
CAL +31
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
STAN +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
Jay Green
X · CAL
CB1 · STAN
78.7
70.7
CAL +8
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Matt Rose
RB · CAL
MLB · STAN
69.4
78.1
STAN +9
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Tristan Jernigan
RB · STAN
MLB · CAL
64.3
69.7
CAL +5
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
Cam Sidney
X · STAN
CB1 · CAL
52.4
78.5
CAL +26
over the middle
Dorian Thomas
vs
Scotty Edwards
TE · CAL
FS · STAN
63.0
49.3
CAL +14
off the edge· hunting Sagapolutele
Bastian Swinney
vs
Joe Asiain
LT · CAL
EDGE · STAN
43.6
65.5
STAN +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Stanford
opponent
California
away-12.3
Virginia Tech#57
-0.6home
away-14.2
Wake Forest#46
-2.5home
home-13.2
NC State#34
-11.5away
home-20.9
SMU#18
-19.2away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCAL +9.295% interval: -14.7 to 33.180% interval: -8.2 to 26.6-8+27STAN wins 26%CAL wins 74%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CAL 28–21 STANCAL 25–46 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 28–42 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 32–39 STAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 35–35 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 39–32 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 42–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCAL 46–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 49–21 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 53–18 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 21–42 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 25–39 STAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCAL 28–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 32–32 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 35–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCAL 39–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCAL 42–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCAL 46–18 STAN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCAL 49–14 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 18–39 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 21–35 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 25–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCAL 28–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCAL 32–25 STAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 35–21 STAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCAL 39–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 42–14 STAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 46–11 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 14–35 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 18–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCAL 21–28 STAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCAL 25–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCAL 28–21 STAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCAL 32–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCAL 35–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCAL 39–11 STAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCAL 42–7 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 11–32 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCAL 14–28 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCAL 18–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCAL 21–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCAL 25–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCAL 28–14 STAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCAL 32–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCAL 35–7 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 39–4 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 7–28 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCAL 11–25 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCAL 14–21 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 18–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCAL 21–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCAL 25–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCAL 28–7 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 32–4 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 35–0 STAN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCAL 4–25 STAN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCAL 7–21 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCAL 11–18 STAN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCAL 14–14 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCAL 18–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCAL 21–7 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCAL 25–4 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCAL 28–0 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalSTAN +21STAN +7CAL +7CAL +21CAL +35margin →