AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#71Away
Syracuse
0-0 · AVR 48.1
28p
#79Home
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
30p
SYR 43%57% BC
Spread
BC -2.2
Total
58
Moneyline
SYR+132BC-132
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SYR advantageevenBC advantage →
SYR throw
SYR QB #29SYR protection #93
SYR +17
SYR run
BC +40
BC throw
BC +4
BC run
BC +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Chris D'Appolonia
RB · BC
MLB · SYR
79.5
80.0
dead even
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Reggie Jackson
vs
Tunmise Adeleye
LT · BC
EDGE · SYR
62.7
80.3
SYR +18
when SYR throws
Cole Weaver
vs
Kameron Howard
X · SYR
CB1 · BC
54.3
75.7
BC +21
when BC throws
Dawson Pough
vs
Nazir Ward
X · BC
CB1 · SYR
55.9
68.7
SYR +13
over the middle
Kaelan Chudzinski
vs
Demetres Samuel Jr.
TE · BC
FS · SYR
63.6
55.5
BC +8
when SYR runs
Malachi Coleman
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · SYR
MLB · BC
42.7
75.5
BC +33

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Syracuse
LBChris D'Appolonia
80.053/878
QBAmari Odom
74.229/308
DBNazir Ward
68.7268/1427
DBJai Eugene Jr.
60.6466/1427
DBChris Peal
60.1477/1427
LBJosh Kubala
55.6378/878
Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Syracuse
opponent
Boston College
home-14.7
SMU#18
-20.0away
home-24.5
Notre Dame#4
-29.8away
away-12.1
Pittsburgh#33
-7.4home

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBC +2.295% interval: -21.7 to 26.180% interval: -15.2 to 19.6-15+20SYR wins 43%BC wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BC 28–28 SYRBC 25–53 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 28–49 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 32–46 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBC 35–42 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBC 39–39 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 42–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBC 46–32 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBC 49–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBC 53–25 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 21–49 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 25–46 SYR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBC 28–42 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 32–39 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 35–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBC 39–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBC 42–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBC 46–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBC 49–21 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 18–46 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 21–42 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 25–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBC 28–35 SYR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBC 32–32 SYR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBC 35–28 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBC 39–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 42–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBC 46–18 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 14–42 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 18–39 SYR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBC 21–35 SYR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBC 25–32 SYR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBC 28–28 SYR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBC 32–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBC 35–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBC 39–18 SYR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBC 42–14 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 11–39 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBC 14–35 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 18–32 SYR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBC 21–28 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBC 25–25 SYR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBC 28–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBC 32–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBC 35–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBC 39–11 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 7–35 SYR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBC 11–32 SYR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBC 14–28 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBC 18–25 SYR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBC 21–21 SYR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBC 25–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBC 28–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 32–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBC 35–7 SYR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBC 4–32 SYR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBC 7–28 SYR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBC 11–25 SYR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBC 14–21 SYR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBC 18–18 SYR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBC 21–14 SYR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBC 25–11 SYR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBC 28–7 SYR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBC 32–4 SYR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalSYR +28SYR +14PKBC +14BC +28margin →