AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Thu Sep 3 · 9:00 PM
#121Away
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
10p
#35Home
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
46p
UAB 1%99% ILL
Spread
ILL -36.2
Total
57
Moneyline
UAB—ILL—
Against the market
ILL +7.7line ILL -28.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UAB advantageevenILL advantage →
UAB throw
UAB +7
UAB run
even
ILL throw
ILL +51
ILL run
ILL +41

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Muaaz Byard
RB · ILL
MLB · UAB
68.9
64.0
ILL +5
off the edge· hunting Burton
Calib Perez
vs
Isaiah Thomison
LT · UAB
EDGE · ILL
50.0
78.8
ILL +29
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · ILL
CB1 · UAB
68.9
56.5
ILL +12
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
James Kreutz
RB · UAB
MLB · ILL
57.9
63.3
ILL +5
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
Elijah Hall
LT · ILL
EDGE · UAB
61.6
57.7
ILL +4
over the middle
Kaden Feagin
vs
Darrell Sweeting
TE · ILL
FS · UAB
72.7
42.1
ILL +31

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427
Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

Projected margin

80% between 17 and 53
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKILL +36.2MKT95% interval: 7 to 6380% interval: 17 to 53+17+53UAB wins 1%ILL wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ILL 46–11 UABILL 42–35 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 46–32 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 49–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 53–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 56–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 60–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesILL 63–14 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesILL 67–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 70–7 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 39–32 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 42–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 46–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesILL 49–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 53–18 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesILL 56–14 UAB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesILL 60–11 UAB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesILL 63–7 UAB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 67–4 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 35–28 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 39–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesILL 42–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 46–18 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesILL 49–14 UAB neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesILL 53–11 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 56–7 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 60–4 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 63–0 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 32–25 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 35–21 UAB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 39–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesILL 42–14 UAB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesILL 46–11 UAB neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesILL 49–7 UAB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesILL 53–4 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 56–0 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ILL 28–21 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 32–18 UAB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesILL 35–14 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 39–11 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesILL 42–7 UAB neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesILL 46–4 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 49–0 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ILL 25–18 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 28–14 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesILL 32–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 35–7 UAB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 39–4 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesILL 42–0 UAB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ILL 21–14 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 25–11 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 28–7 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 32–4 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 35–0 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalILL +7ILL +21ILL +35ILL +49ILL +63margin →