AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:00 PM
#101Away
Ohio
0-0 · AVR 39.2
9p
#41Home
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
39p
OHIO 3%97% NEB
Spread
NEB -29.4
Total
48
Moneyline
OHIO—NEB—
Against the market
NEB +5.4line NEB -24.0

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OHIO advantageevenNEB advantage →
OHIO throw
NEB +44
OHIO run
NEB +5
NEB throw
NEB +47
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
NEB +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when OHIO runs
Duncan Brune
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · OHIO
MLB · NEB
63.3
83.3
NEB +20
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
Evan Herrmann
LT · NEB
EDGE · OHIO
76.6
60.3
NEB +16
when NEB throws
Nyziah Hunter
vs
DJ Morton
X · NEB
CB1 · OHIO
70.0
62.9
NEB +7
when OHIO throws
Dom Dorwart
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · OHIO
CB1 · NEB
48.0
84.3
NEB +36
when NEB runs
Mekhi Nelson
vs
Michael Molnar
RB · NEB
MLB · OHIO
52.0
56.6
OHIO +5
over the middle
Luke Lindenmeyer
vs
Andrew Vera
TE · NEB
FS · OHIO
56.4
49.9
NEB +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Ohio
RBDuncan Brune
63.382/514
SDJ Morton
62.9408/1427
SDJ Walker
61.2453/1427
CBKendall Bannister
59.8489/1427
LBMichael Molnar
56.6361/878
RBVictor Rosa
56.0155/514
Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Projected margin

80% between 9 and 49
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNEB +29.4MKT95% interval: -2 to 5880% interval: 9 to 49+9+49OHIO wins 3%NEB wins 97%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NEB 39–11 OHIONEB 35–35 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 39–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 42–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 46–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 49–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEB 53–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 56–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 60–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 63–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 32–32 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 35–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 39–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEB 42–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEB 46–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEB 49–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEB 53–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 56–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 60–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 28–28 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 32–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 35–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 39–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEB 42–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesNEB 46–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEB 49–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEB 53–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEB 56–0 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 25–25 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 28–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 32–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 35–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNEB 39–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesNEB 42–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesNEB 46–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEB 49–0 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NEB 21–21 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 25–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 28–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 32–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 35–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesNEB 39–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNEB 42–0 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)NEB 18–18 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 21–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 25–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 28–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEB 32–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEB 35–0 OHIO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)NEB 14–14 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 18–11 OHIO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEB 21–7 OHIO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEB 25–4 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 28–0 OHIO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalPKNEB +14NEB +28NEB +42NEB +56margin →