CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MD 57.8%42.2% CONN
Projected margin
MD by 3.2
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
MD 23 to CONN 17
Win probability
MD 57.8%
FinalMD 38 · CONN 14model had -3.2, off by 20.8

Current team profiles

Maryland
UConn

When Maryland has the ball

Passing

CONN defense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#125
CONN defense
#84
EPA comparison
-0.01
#125
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

CONN defense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#72
CONN defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
-0.01
#41
Rush EPA

Drive success

CONN defense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#106
CONN defense
#92
Success rates
40%
#106
42%
#92
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#112
0.08
#76
EPA / play
1.25
#60
1.20
#63
Explosiveness
14%
#45
16%
#63
Havoc

When UConn has the ball

Passing

CONN offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#65
CONN offense
#38
EPA comparison
0.12
#65
0.33
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

CONN offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#84
CONN offense
#28
EPA comparison
0.07
#84
0.21
#28
Rush EPA

Drive success

CONN offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#86
CONN offense
#52
Success rates
42%
#86
45%
#52
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#78
0.22
#38
EPA / play
1.20
#55
1.40
#7
Explosiveness
16%
#74
13%
#39
Havoc

Current key players

Maryland
QBCardell Williams
63 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
91.87/729
WRZymear Smith
— rec · — yds · — TD
88.411/2069
WRChris Durr Jr.
42 rec · 461 yds · 4 TD
79.959/2069
LBStephen Dean III
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.3
Coverage
62.3
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.0184/1796
DBJamare Glasker
16 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.1
Coverage
71.9
Targets allowed
23
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
166
Passer rating allowed
72.0
Missed tackles
5
74.0228/2969
LBTrey Reddick
19 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.2
Coverage
68.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
72.1288/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Zahir Mathis · LBout · 2026-08-13

    Mathis is battling with a leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Cardell Williams · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Williams is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Lavon Johnson · DLQues. · 2026-10-11

    Johnson is dealing with an undisclosed injury,, and it is undetermined if he will face against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Daniel Leahy · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Leahy is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

UConn
QBKalieb Osborne
1164 yds · 10 TD · 2 INT
91.012/729
LBHayden Pegg
34 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.7
Coverage
83.6
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
15
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
87.024/1796
WRRaymond Liggins III
5 rec · 72 yds · 1 TD
81.345/2069
RBCyncir Bowers
349 yds · 5 TD · 7.4 YPC
80.180/1044
WRKamren Flowers
1 rec · 30 yds · 0 TD
77.778/2069
TEMatt Ragan
5 rec · 56 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
30.8
Run blocking
71.7
Penalties
2
74.152/1017
Availability reports · 2
  • J. Brown · WRout · 2026-10-05

    Brown is bothered by a concussion protocol, and he is without a definitive timetable for return.

  • Jake Merklinger · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Merklinger is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Minutemen on Friday , October 23rd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MD
CONN
vs
Offense
91.8
#7 of 138
QB
91.0
#12 of 138
70.1
#118 of 138
RB
78.8
#42 of 138
80.8
#9 of 138
WR
77.7
#18 of 138
61.1
#111 of 138
TE
74.1
#42 of 138
68.8
#62 of 138
OL
71.7
#40 of 138
Defense
74.5
#59 of 138
DL
71.3
#93 of 138
72.5
#84 of 138
LB
73.2
#78 of 138
67.5
#122 of 138
DB
64.0
#136 of 138
Common opponents