AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#47Away
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
29p
#72Home
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
26p
MD 59%41% CONN
Spread
MD -3.1
Total
55
Moneyline
MD-143CONN+143
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MD advantageevenCONN advantage →
MD throw
MD protection #69CONN coverage #115
MD +12
MD run
CONN linebackers #69
CONN +21
CONN throw
even
CONN run
CONN +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · MD
MLB · CONN
69.0
93.3
CONN +24
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Esean Carter
LT · MD
EDGE · CONN
67.2
87.3
CONN +20
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Zahir Mathis
LT · CONN
EDGE · MD
77.4
76.3
dead even
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Jayden Davis
X · MD
CB1 · CONN
72.8
71.1
dead even
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · CONN
CB1 · MD
57.0
74.9
MD +18
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · CONN
MLB · MD
62.7
68.0
MD +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMD +3.195% interval: -27 to 20.880% interval: -20.5 to 14.3-20+14MD wins 59%CONN wins 41%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CONN 28–28 MDCONN 25–53 MD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 28–49 MD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCONN 32–46 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 35–42 MD neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 39–39 MD neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 42–35 MD neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 46–32 MD neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 49–28 MD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 53–25 MD neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCONN 21–49 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 25–46 MD neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCONN 28–42 MD neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 32–39 MD neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 35–35 MD neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 39–32 MD neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 42–28 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCONN 46–25 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 49–21 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 18–46 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 21–42 MD neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 25–39 MD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCONN 28–35 MD neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCONN 32–32 MD neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCONN 35–28 MD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 39–25 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 42–21 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 46–18 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 14–42 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 18–39 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 21–35 MD neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 25–32 MD neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCONN 28–28 MD neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCONN 32–25 MD neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 35–21 MD neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 39–18 MD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 42–14 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 11–39 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 14–35 MD neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 18–32 MD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 21–28 MD neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCONN 25–25 MD neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCONN 28–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 32–18 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 35–14 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 39–11 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 7–35 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 11–32 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCONN 14–28 MD neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 18–25 MD neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCONN 21–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCONN 25–18 MD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCONN 28–14 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCONN 32–11 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 35–7 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 4–32 MD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 7–28 MD neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 11–25 MD neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 14–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 18–18 MD neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 21–14 MD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCONN 25–11 MD neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCONN 28–7 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 32–4 MD neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalMD +28MD +14PKCONN +14CONN +28margin →