AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#92Away
Utah State
0-0 · AVR 42.3
16p
#15Home
Washington
0-0 · AVR 72.3
43p
USU 4%96% WASH
Spread
WASH -26.5
Total
59
Moneyline
USU+2749WASH-2749
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USU advantageevenWASH advantage →
USU throw
USU protection #88WASH pass rush #72
WASH +18
USU run
WASH +14
WASH throw
WASH +37
WASH run
WASH +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WASH throws
Dezmen Roebuck
vs
Chika Ebunoha
X · WASH
CB1 · USU
86.2
71.6
WASH +15
when USU runs
Javen Jacobs
vs
Xe'ree Alexander
RB · USU
MLB · WASH
71.1
81.2
WASH +10
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Elishah Jackett
vs
Tyree Morris
LT · WASH
EDGE · USU
82.4
61.9
WASH +21
when USU throws
Kahanu Davis
vs
Emmanuel Karnley
X · USU
CB1 · WASH
53.2
82.4
WASH +29
over the middle
Decker DeGraaf
vs
Bryson Taylor
TE · WASH
FS · USU
71.5
62.4
WASH +9
when WASH runs
Jayden Limar
vs
John Miller
RB · WASH
MLB · USU
58.6
66.6
USU +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah State
QBBryson Barnes
71.737/308
SChika Ebunoha
71.6199/1427
RBJaven Jacobs
71.147/514
LBJohn Miller
66.6192/878
SIke Larsen
66.6317/1427
LBBronson Olevao Jr.
65.1210/878
Washington
WRDezmen Roebuck
86.212/777
QBDemond Williams Jr.
83.016/308
CBEmmanuel Karnley
82.467/1427
LBXe'ree Alexanderprobable
81.247/878
SRahshawn Clark
80.986/1427
SAlex McLaughlin
79.298/1427

also out — Washington Football Standing, Jordan Washington, Washington Huskies Running Back (RB), Former Washington football star, Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Projected margin

80% between 9 and 44
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWASH +26.595% interval: 2.6 to 50.480% interval: 9.1 to 43.9+9+44USU wins 4%WASH wins 96%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WASH 42–14 USUWASH 39–39 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 42–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 46–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 49–28 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWASH 53–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWASH 56–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 60–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWASH 63–14 USU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 67–11 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 35–35 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWASH 39–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWASH 42–28 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 46–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 49–21 USU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWASH 53–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWASH 56–14 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 60–11 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 63–7 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 32–32 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWASH 35–28 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWASH 39–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWASH 42–21 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWASH 46–18 USU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWASH 49–14 USU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 53–11 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 56–7 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 60–4 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 28–28 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWASH 32–25 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWASH 35–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWASH 39–18 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWASH 42–14 USU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesWASH 46–11 USU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 49–7 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 53–4 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 56–0 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 25–25 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWASH 28–21 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWASH 32–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 35–14 USU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWASH 39–11 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWASH 42–7 USU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWASH 46–4 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 49–0 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)WASH 21–21 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 25–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 28–14 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 32–11 USU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWASH 35–7 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWASH 39–4 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 42–0 USU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)WASH 18–18 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 21–14 USU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 25–11 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWASH 28–7 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 32–4 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 35–0 USU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKWASH +14WASH +28WASH +42WASH +56margin →