AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:00 PM
#115Away
Akron
0-0 · AVR 34.5
17p
#54Home
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
35p
AKR 12%88% MINN
Spread
MINN -17.3
Total
52
Moneyline
AKR+743MINN-743
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AKR advantageevenMINN advantage →
AKR throw
MINN pass rush #20
MINN +26
AKR run
MINN +42
MINN throw
MINN +29
MINN run
MINN +39

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when AKR runs
Jordan Gant
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · AKR
MLB · MINN
62.7
78.3
MINN +16
off the edge· hunting Lindsey
Tony Nelson
vs
Cyrus Durham
LT · MINN
EDGE · AKR
50.2
81.4
AKR +31
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Zach Hobson
X · MINN
CB1 · AKR
61.2
69.2
AKR +8
when AKR throws
Marcel Williams
vs
John Nestor
X · AKR
CB1 · MINN
54.0
71.9
MINN +18
off the edge· hunting Poffenbarger
Colin Lyons
vs
Anthony Smith
LT · AKR
EDGE · MINN
38.0
86.8
MINN +49
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Cam Macon
RB · MINN
MLB · AKR
69.0
43.9
MINN +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Akron
CBZach Hobson
69.2258/1427
DBCatrell White
66.7316/1427
RBJordan Gant
62.789/514
DBIesa Jarmon
59.3500/1427
WRMarcel Williams
54.0192/777
WRKyan Mason
53.5205/777
Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427

Projected margin

80% between -0 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMINN +17.395% interval: -6.6 to 41.280% interval: -0.1 to 34.70+35AKR wins 12%MINN wins 88%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MINN 32–18 AKRMINN 28–42 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 32–39 AKR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 35–35 AKR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 39–32 AKR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 42–28 AKR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMINN 46–25 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 49–21 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 53–18 AKR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 56–14 AKR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 25–39 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 28–35 AKR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 32–32 AKR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMINN 35–28 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 39–25 AKR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 42–21 AKR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 46–18 AKR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMINN 49–14 AKR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMINN 53–11 AKR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 21–35 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 25–32 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 28–28 AKR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 32–25 AKR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 35–21 AKR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMINN 39–18 AKR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMINN 42–14 AKR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMINN 46–11 AKR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 49–7 AKR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 18–32 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 21–28 AKR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 25–25 AKR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 28–21 AKR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 32–18 AKR neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMINN 35–14 AKR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMINN 39–11 AKR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMINN 42–7 AKR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 46–4 AKR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 14–28 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 18–25 AKR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 21–21 AKR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 25–18 AKR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMINN 28–14 AKR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMINN 32–11 AKR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMINN 35–7 AKR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 39–4 AKR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMINN 42–0 AKR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 11–25 AKR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 14–21 AKR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 18–18 AKR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMINN 21–14 AKR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 25–11 AKR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMINN 28–7 AKR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMINN 32–4 AKR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 35–0 AKR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)MINN 7–21 AKR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMINN 11–18 AKR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 14–14 AKR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMINN 18–11 AKR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMINN 21–7 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 25–4 AKR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 28–0 AKR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalAKR +14PKMINN +14MINN +28MINN +42margin →