CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:15 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UND 1.7%98.3% NEB
Projected margin
NEB by 32.8
Projected total
62
80% outcome range
NEB 10 to NEB 53
Win probability
NEB 98.3%
FinalUND 7 · NEB 34model had +32.8, off by 5.8

Current team profiles

North Dakota
Nebraska

When North Dakota has the ball

Passing

No comparison
UND offense
—
NEB defense
#7
EPA comparison
—
-0.10
#7
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
UND offense
—
NEB defense
#63
EPA comparison
—
0.03
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
UND offense
#4
NEB defense
#18
Success rates
52%
#4
34%
#18
Success rate
More metrics
0.28
#8
-0.02
#35
EPA / play
0.24
#8
1.36
#120
Explosiveness
—
19%
#28
Havoc

When Nebraska has the ball

Passing

No comparison
UND defense
—
NEB offense
#47
EPA comparison
—
0.28
#47
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
UND defense
—
NEB offense
#3
EPA comparison
—
0.33
#3
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
UND defense
#5
NEB offense
#36
Success rates
38%
#5
48%
#36
Success rate
More metrics
-0.01
#6
0.31
#14
EPA / play
0.17
#2
1.38
#14
Explosiveness
—
13%
#37
Havoc

Current key players

North Dakota
QBJerry Kaminski
1474 yds · 19 TD · 2 INT
86.314/370
QBJavance Tupou'ata-Johnson
65 yds · 0 TD · 2 INT
84.619/370
DLBraden Mohr
23 tkl · 7.0 TFL · 5.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
80
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
83.117/1549
OLAyden Teeter
Player detail
Pass blocking
56.7
Run blocking
82.1
Penalties
0
82.36/1368
DBBen Kamara
4 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.3
Coverage
80.0
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
54
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
1
79.253/1765
TEMason South
4 rec · 25 yds · 3 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
75.2
Run blocking
73.6
Penalties
0
78.611/526
Nebraska
QBAnthony Colandrea
1142 yds · 13 TD · 2 INT
91.110/729
RBJamal Rule
333 yds · 5 TD · 7.9 YPC
86.229/1044
LBDerek Wacker
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.4
Coverage
76.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.133/1796
LBOwen Chambliss
26 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.0
Coverage
83.4
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
83.057/1796
CBAndrew Marshall
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.6
Coverage
76.4
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
13
Passer rating allowed
34.7
Missed tackles
1
77.7104/2969
CBVictor Evans III
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
46
Passer rating allowed
65.0
Missed tackles
0
73.1269/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Riley Van Poppel · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Van Poppel is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Oregon on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Larry Miles · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Miles is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will face Oregon on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Nelson · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Nelson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but it is yet to established if he will play against the Oregon on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UND
NEB
vs
Offense
86.3
#14 of 125
QB
91.1
#11 of 138
76.6
#27 of 126
RB
83.2
#18 of 138
70.0
#55 of 126
WR
69.6
#86 of 138
78.6
#10 of 124
TE
67.3
#79 of 138
74.9
#4 of 125
OL
71.7
#41 of 138
Defense
76.6
#17 of 126
DL
77.8
#27 of 138
71.3
#63 of 126
LB
79.3
#25 of 138
74.7
#22 of 126
DB
71.6
#74 of 138
Common opponents