AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sun Sep 20 · 3:00 AM
#69Away
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
24p
#53Home
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
30p
PUR 33%67% UCLA
Spread
UCLA -6.4
Total
54
Moneyline
PUR+204UCLA-204
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PUR advantageevenUCLA advantage →
PUR throw
PUR protection #96
UCLA +28
PUR run
UCLA +40
UCLA throw
UCLA +36
UCLA run
UCLA +31

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Mister Clark
X · UCLA
CB1 · PUR
87.0
73.5
UCLA +14
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · PUR
CB1 · UCLA
68.9
89.4
UCLA +20
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Sahir West
LT · PUR
EDGE · UCLA
57.3
93.8
UCLA +36
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Charles Correa
RB · UCLA
MLB · PUR
82.7
64.8
UCLA +18
when PUR runs
Fame Ijeboi
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · PUR
MLB · UCLA
56.4
84.8
UCLA +28
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
Rodney Lora
LT · UCLA
EDGE · PUR
69.2
67.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Purdue
opponent
UCLA
away-11.4
Illinois#35
-2.5home
home+0.6
Wisconsin#58
+4.5home
home-2.8
Maryland#47
-3.9away
home-1.7
Minnesota#54
-2.8away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUCLA +6.495% interval: -17.5 to 30.380% interval: -11 to 23.8-11+24PUR wins 33%UCLA wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCLA 32–25 PURUCLA 28–49 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 32–46 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–42 PUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCLA 39–39 PUR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 42–35 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 46–32 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 49–28 PUR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 53–25 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 56–21 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 25–46 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 28–42 PUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 32–39 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–35 PUR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 39–32 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 42–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 46–25 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCLA 49–21 PUR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 53–18 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 21–42 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 25–39 PUR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–35 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 32–32 PUR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–28 PUR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 39–25 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 42–21 PUR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 46–18 PUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 49–14 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 18–39 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 21–35 PUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCLA 25–32 PUR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–28 PUR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 32–25 PUR neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUCLA 35–21 PUR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCLA 39–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 42–14 PUR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCLA 46–11 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 14–35 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 18–32 PUR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 21–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 25–25 PUR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCLA 28–21 PUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCLA 32–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCLA 35–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 39–11 PUR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCLA 42–7 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 11–32 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 14–28 PUR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCLA 18–25 PUR neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCLA 21–21 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 25–18 PUR neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCLA 28–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 32–11 PUR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–7 PUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 39–4 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 7–28 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 11–25 PUR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 14–21 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCLA 18–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 21–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 25–11 PUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 28–7 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 32–4 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–0 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalPUR +21PUR +7UCLA +7UCLA +21UCLA +35margin →