CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
PUR 11.4%88.6% UCLA
Projected margin
UCLA by 19.1
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
PUR 2 to UCLA 41
Win probability
UCLA 88.6%
FinalPUR 38 · UCLA 52model had +19.1, off by 5.1

Current team profiles

Purdue
UCLA

When Purdue has the ball

Passing

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR offense
#24
UCLA defense
#5
EPA comparison
0.40
#24
-0.12
#5
Pass EPA

Rushing

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR offense
#63
UCLA defense
#1
EPA comparison
0.12
#63
-0.24
#1
Rush EPA

Drive success

UCLA defense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR offense
#44
UCLA defense
#5
Success rates
46%
#44
32%
#5
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#29
-0.20
#1
EPA / play
1.21
#83
1.23
#74
Explosiveness
12%
#30
21%
#11
Havoc

When UCLA has the ball

Passing

UCLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR defense
#119
UCLA offense
#98
EPA comparison
0.34
#119
0.12
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

UCLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR defense
#125
UCLA offense
#12
EPA comparison
0.20
#125
0.26
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

UCLA offense
Higher-ranked profile
PUR defense
#120
UCLA offense
#44
Success rates
46%
#120
46%
#44
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#132
0.20
#46
EPA / play
1.40
#127
1.23
#72
Explosiveness
14%
#105
14%
#63
Havoc

Current key players

Purdue
QBRyan Browne
1390 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
77.595/729
WRAsaad Waseem
27 rec · 453 yds · 1 TD
83.630/2069
DBMister Clark
5 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Coverage
76.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
59
Passer rating allowed
95.8
Missed tackles
1
79.965/2969
RBFame Ijeboi
354 yds · 6 TD · 4.1 YPC
79.590/1044
WRXavier Townsend
28 rec · 307 yds · 2 TD
74.0146/2069
LBHudson Miller
7 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
64.4
Coverage
70.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
70.1362/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Kylan Fox · TEout · 2026-08-13

    Fox is laid up with a knee injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

UCLA
QBNico Iamaleava
820 yds · 4 TD · 2 INT
64.9216/729
LBSammy Omosigho
38 tkl · 7.0 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.7
Coverage
82.5
Pressures
11
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
3
90.78/1796
LBTrent Hendrick
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.7
Coverage
82.5
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
86.825/1796
RBWayne Knight
445 yds · 9 TD · 9.1 YPC
86.227/1044
DBTa'Shawn James
24 tkl · 2 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.0
Coverage
84.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
70
Passer rating allowed
41.7
Missed tackles
5
84.328/2969
DBDerrick Barksdale
12 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.5
Coverage
76.5
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
110
Passer rating allowed
120.1
Missed tackles
3
77.7102/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Mikey Matthews · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Matthews is dealing with a lower-leg injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Josh Phifer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Phifer is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Sam Yoon · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Yoon is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Badgers on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

PUR
UCLA
vs
Offense
77.5
#72 of 138
QB
64.9
#120 of 138
75.2
#72 of 138
RB
86.0
#7 of 138
77.0
#26 of 138
WR
74.0
#43 of 138
69.3
#69 of 138
TE
61.1
#110 of 138
61.7
#121 of 138
OL
69.3
#57 of 138
Defense
72.2
#83 of 138
DL
80.0
#16 of 138
65.6
#132 of 138
LB
84.2
#8 of 138
66.1
#133 of 138
DB
75.2
#31 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Purdue
opponent
UCLA
H+1.4
MD#72
+51.0A
H+28.0
MINN#54
+5.0A
H-3.0
WIS#32
+6.7H
A+7.0
ILL#47
+3.2H