AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#53Away
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
24p
#47Home
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
28p
UCLA 39%61% MD
Spread
MD -3.9
Total
52
Moneyline
UCLA+154MD-154
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UCLA advantageevenMD advantage →
UCLA throw
UCLA +7
UCLA run
UCLA +10
MD throw
MD protection #69
UCLA +6
MD run
UCLA +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · MD
CB1 · UCLA
72.8
89.4
UCLA +17
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · UCLA
CB1 · MD
87.0
74.9
UCLA +12
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Sahir West
LT · MD
EDGE · UCLA
67.2
93.8
UCLA +27
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · MD
MLB · UCLA
69.0
84.8
UCLA +16
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · UCLA
MLB · MD
82.7
68.0
UCLA +15
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
Zahir Mathis
LT · UCLA
EDGE · MD
69.2
76.3
MD +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427
Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UCLA
opponent
Maryland
home-15.7
USC#10
-19.3away
home+6.4
Purdue#69
+2.8away
home+4.5
Wisconsin#58
+5.9home
home-2.5
Illinois#35
-1.1home

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMD +3.995% interval: -20 to 27.880% interval: -13.5 to 21.3-13+21UCLA wins 39%MD wins 61%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MD 28–21 UCLAMD 25–46 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 28–42 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMD 32–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 35–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 39–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 42–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMD 46–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 49–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 53–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 21–42 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 25–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 28–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMD 32–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMD 35–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 39–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 42–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMD 46–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMD 49–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 18–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMD 21–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 25–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 28–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMD 32–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMD 35–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMD 39–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 42–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 46–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 14–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMD 18–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 21–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMD 25–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMD 28–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMD 32–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMD 35–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 39–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 42–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 11–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 14–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 18–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMD 21–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 25–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 28–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 32–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMD 35–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMD 39–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 7–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 11–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMD 14–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 18–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 21–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 25–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMD 28–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 32–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 35–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 4–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 7–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 11–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 14–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMD 18–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 21–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMD 25–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMD 28–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalUCLA +21UCLA +7MD +7MD +21MD +35margin →