AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#54Away
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
18p
#15Home
Washington
0-0 · AVR 72.3
35p
MINN 12%88% WASH
Spread
WASH -17.1
Total
54
Moneyline
MINN+720WASH-720
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MINN advantageevenWASH advantage →
MINN throw
WASH pass rush #72
WASH +8
MINN run
WASH +6
WASH throw
MINN pass rush #20
WASH +21
WASH run
MINN +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Elishah Jackett
vs
Anthony Smith
LT · WASH
EDGE · MINN
82.4
86.8
MINN +4
when WASH throws
Dezmen Roebuck
vs
John Nestor
X · WASH
CB1 · MINN
86.2
71.9
WASH +14
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Xe'ree Alexander
RB · MINN
MLB · WASH
69.0
81.2
WASH +12
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Emmanuel Karnley
X · MINN
CB1 · WASH
61.2
82.4
WASH +21
when WASH runs
Jayden Limar
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · WASH
MLB · MINN
58.6
78.3
MINN +20
over the middle
Decker DeGraaf
vs
Rhyland Kelly
TE · WASH
FS · MINN
71.5
54.5
WASH +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427
Washington
WRDezmen Roebuck
86.212/777
QBDemond Williams Jr.
83.016/308
CBEmmanuel Karnley
82.467/1427
LBXe'ree Alexanderprobable
81.247/878
SRahshawn Clark
80.986/1427
SAlex McLaughlin
79.298/1427

also out — Washington Football Standing, Jordan Washington, Washington Huskies Running Back (RB), Former Washington football star, Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Minnesota
opponent
Washington
away-13.3
Penn State#21
+6.3home
away-19.4
Indiana#7
+0.2home
away+1.7
Purdue#69
+16.3away
home-8.1
Iowa#22
+6.5home

Projected margin

80% between -0 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWASH +17.195% interval: -6.8 to 4180% interval: -0.3 to 34.50+35MINN wins 12%WASH wins 88%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WASH 35–21 MINNWASH 32–46 MINN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWASH 35–42 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 39–39 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 42–35 MINN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWASH 46–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 49–28 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 53–25 MINN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWASH 56–21 MINN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWASH 60–18 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 28–42 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 32–39 MINN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWASH 35–35 MINN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWASH 39–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWASH 42–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWASH 46–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWASH 49–21 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 53–18 MINN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 56–14 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWASH 25–39 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 28–35 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 32–32 MINN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWASH 35–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWASH 39–25 MINN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWASH 42–21 MINN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWASH 46–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWASH 49–14 MINN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWASH 53–11 MINN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWASH 21–35 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 25–32 MINN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWASH 28–28 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWASH 32–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWASH 35–21 MINN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWASH 39–18 MINN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWASH 42–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWASH 46–11 MINN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWASH 49–7 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 18–32 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 21–28 MINN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWASH 25–25 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWASH 28–21 MINN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWASH 32–18 MINN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWASH 35–14 MINN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWASH 39–11 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWASH 42–7 MINN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWASH 46–4 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 14–28 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 18–25 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 21–21 MINN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWASH 25–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWASH 28–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 32–11 MINN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 35–7 MINN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWASH 39–4 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWASH 42–0 MINN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWASH 11–25 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 14–21 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWASH 18–18 MINN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 21–14 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 25–11 MINN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWASH 28–7 MINN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWASH 32–4 MINN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 35–0 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMINN +14PKWASH +14WASH +28WASH +42margin →