AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
Purdue Cannon
#69Away
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
22p
#35Home
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
34p
PUR 22%78% ILL
Spread
ILL -11.4
Total
56
Moneyline
PUR+364ILL-364
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← PUR advantageevenILL advantage →
PUR throw
PUR protection #96
PUR +10
PUR run
ILL +10
ILL throw
ILL +45
ILL run
ILL +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Mister Clark
X · ILL
CB1 · PUR
68.9
73.5
PUR +5
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Isaiah Thomison
LT · PUR
EDGE · ILL
57.3
78.8
ILL +21
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Charles Correa
RB · ILL
MLB · PUR
68.9
64.8
ILL +4
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
Matthew Bailey
X · PUR
CB1 · ILL
68.9
62.8
PUR +6
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
Rodney Lora
LT · ILL
EDGE · PUR
61.6
67.2
PUR +6
over the middle
Kaden Feagin
vs
Smiley Bradford
TE · ILL
FS · PUR
72.7
52.1
ILL +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Purdue
opponent
Illinois
away-17.3
Iowa#22
-3.4home
away-6.4
UCLA#53
+2.5away
home-2.8
Maryland#47
+1.1away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKILL +11.495% interval: -12.5 to 35.380% interval: -6 to 28.8-6+29PUR wins 22%ILL wins 78%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ILL 35–21 PURILL 32–46 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 35–42 PUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesILL 39–39 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 42–35 PUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 46–32 PUR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesILL 49–28 PUR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 53–25 PUR neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesILL 56–21 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 60–18 PUR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesILL 28–42 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 32–39 PUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 35–35 PUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 39–32 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesILL 42–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesILL 46–25 PUR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesILL 49–21 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 53–18 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 56–14 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 25–39 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 28–35 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 32–32 PUR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 35–28 PUR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesILL 39–25 PUR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 42–21 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 46–18 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesILL 49–14 PUR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 53–11 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 21–35 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 25–32 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 28–28 PUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 32–25 PUR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 35–21 PUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesILL 39–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesILL 42–14 PUR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 46–11 PUR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 49–7 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 18–32 PUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 21–28 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 25–25 PUR neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 28–21 PUR neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesILL 32–18 PUR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 35–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 39–11 PUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesILL 42–7 PUR neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 46–4 PUR neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 14–28 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 18–25 PUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 21–21 PUR neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesILL 25–18 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesILL 28–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesILL 32–11 PUR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesILL 35–7 PUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 39–4 PUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 42–0 PUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 11–25 PUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 14–21 PUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesILL 18–18 PUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 21–14 PUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 25–11 PUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 28–7 PUR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 32–4 PUR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 35–0 PUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPUR +14PKILL +14ILL +28ILL +42margin →