CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MD 3.8%96.2% NEB
Projected margin
NEB by 25.0
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
NEB 4 to NEB 45
Win probability
NEB 96.2%
FinalMD 23 · NEB 48model had +25.0, off by 0.0

Current team profiles

Maryland
Nebraska

When Maryland has the ball

Passing

NEB defense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#125
NEB defense
#7
EPA comparison
-0.01
#125
-0.10
#7
Pass EPA

Rushing

NEB defense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#72
NEB defense
#63
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
0.03
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

NEB defense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#106
NEB defense
#18
Success rates
40%
#106
34%
#18
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#112
-0.02
#35
EPA / play
1.25
#60
1.36
#120
Explosiveness
14%
#45
19%
#28
Havoc

When Nebraska has the ball

Passing

NEB offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#65
NEB offense
#47
EPA comparison
0.12
#65
0.28
#47
Pass EPA

Rushing

NEB offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#84
NEB offense
#3
EPA comparison
0.07
#84
0.33
#3
Rush EPA

Drive success

NEB offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#86
NEB offense
#36
Success rates
42%
#86
48%
#36
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#78
0.31
#14
EPA / play
1.20
#55
1.38
#14
Explosiveness
16%
#74
13%
#37
Havoc

Current key players

Maryland
QBCardell Williams
63 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
91.87/729
WRZymear Smith
— rec · — yds · — TD
88.411/2069
WRChris Durr Jr.
42 rec · 461 yds · 4 TD
79.959/2069
LBStephen Dean III
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.3
Coverage
62.3
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.0184/1796
DBJamare Glasker
16 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.1
Coverage
71.9
Targets allowed
23
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
166
Passer rating allowed
72.0
Missed tackles
5
74.0228/2969
LBTrey Reddick
19 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.2
Coverage
68.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
72.1288/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Zahir Mathis · LBout · 2026-08-13

    Mathis is battling with a leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Cardell Williams · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Williams is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Lavon Johnson · DLQues. · 2026-10-11

    Johnson is dealing with an undisclosed injury,, and it is undetermined if he will face against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Daniel Leahy · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Leahy is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

Nebraska
QBAnthony Colandrea
1142 yds · 13 TD · 2 INT
91.110/729
RBJamal Rule
333 yds · 5 TD · 7.9 YPC
86.229/1044
LBDerek Wacker
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.4
Coverage
76.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.133/1796
LBOwen Chambliss
26 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.0
Coverage
83.4
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
83.057/1796
CBAndrew Marshall
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.6
Coverage
76.4
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
13
Passer rating allowed
34.7
Missed tackles
1
77.7104/2969
CBVictor Evans III
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
46
Passer rating allowed
65.0
Missed tackles
0
73.1269/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Riley Van Poppel · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Van Poppel is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Oregon on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Larry Miles · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Miles is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will face Oregon on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Nelson · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Nelson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but it is yet to established if he will play against the Oregon on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MD
NEB
vs
Offense
91.8
#7 of 138
QB
91.1
#11 of 138
70.1
#118 of 138
RB
83.2
#18 of 138
80.8
#9 of 138
WR
69.6
#86 of 138
61.1
#111 of 138
TE
67.3
#79 of 138
68.8
#62 of 138
OL
71.7
#41 of 138
Defense
74.5
#59 of 138
DL
77.8
#27 of 138
72.5
#84 of 138
LB
79.3
#25 of 138
67.5
#122 of 138
DB
71.6
#74 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Maryland
opponent
Nebraska
A-29.0
OSU#2
-10.7H
H+3.7
RUTG#89
+11.9A
H-5.3
ILL#47
+2.9A