AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#47Away
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
24p
#41Home
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
30p
MD 35%65% NEB
Spread
NEB -5.7
Total
54
Moneyline
MD+183NEB-183
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MD advantageevenNEB advantage →
MD throw
MD protection #69
even
MD run
NEB +12
NEB throw
NEB +21
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
NEB +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · MD
CB1 · NEB
72.8
84.3
NEB +11
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
Zahir Mathis
LT · NEB
EDGE · MD
76.6
76.3
dead even
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · MD
MLB · NEB
69.0
83.3
NEB +14
when NEB throws
Nyziah Hunter
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · NEB
CB1 · MD
70.0
74.9
MD +5
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Jahsear Whittington
LT · MD
EDGE · NEB
67.2
73.3
NEB +6
when NEB runs
Mekhi Nelson
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · NEB
MLB · MD
52.0
68.0
MD +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Maryland
opponent
Nebraska
away-29.7
Ohio State#1
-21.5home
home+3.0
Rutgers#48
+1.2away
home-1.1
Illinois#35
-2.9away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNEB +5.795% interval: -18.2 to 29.680% interval: -11.7 to 23.1-12+23MD wins 35%NEB wins 65%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NEB 32–25 MDNEB 28–49 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 32–46 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEB 35–42 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEB 39–39 MD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEB 42–35 MD neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 46–32 MD neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEB 49–28 MD neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 53–25 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 56–21 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 25–46 MD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 28–42 MD neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 32–39 MD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEB 35–35 MD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEB 39–32 MD neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEB 42–28 MD neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 46–25 MD neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEB 49–21 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEB 53–18 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 21–42 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 25–39 MD neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 28–35 MD neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 32–32 MD neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEB 35–28 MD neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 39–25 MD neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEB 42–21 MD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEB 46–18 MD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 49–14 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 18–39 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 21–35 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEB 25–32 MD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEB 28–28 MD neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 32–25 MD neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEB 35–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEB 39–18 MD neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 42–14 MD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 46–11 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 14–35 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 18–32 MD neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 21–28 MD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEB 25–25 MD neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 28–21 MD neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEB 32–18 MD neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEB 35–14 MD neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 39–11 MD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 42–7 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 11–32 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 14–28 MD neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 18–25 MD neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 21–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEB 25–18 MD neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEB 28–14 MD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEB 32–11 MD neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEB 35–7 MD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 39–4 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 7–28 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 11–25 MD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 14–21 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 18–18 MD neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 21–14 MD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEB 25–11 MD neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 28–7 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEB 32–4 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 35–0 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMD +21MD +7NEB +7NEB +21NEB +35margin →