CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
IU 87.0%13.0% RUTG
Projected margin
IU by 16.4
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
IU 38 to RUTG 3
Win probability
IU 87.0%
FinalIU 47 · RUTG 15model had -16.4, off by 15.6

Current team profiles

Indiana
Rutgers

When Indiana has the ball

Passing

IU offense
Higher-ranked profile
IU offense
#2
RUTG defense
#128
EPA comparison
0.65
#2
0.38
#128
Pass EPA

Rushing

IU offense
Higher-ranked profile
IU offense
#17
RUTG defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.25
#17
0.19
#122
Rush EPA

Drive success

IU offense
Higher-ranked profile
IU offense
#24
RUTG defense
#124
Success rates
49%
#24
46%
#124
Success rate
More metrics
0.41
#2
0.23
#127
EPA / play
1.41
#5
1.24
#78
Explosiveness
11%
#18
12%
#125
Havoc

When Rutgers has the ball

Passing

IU defense
Higher-ranked profile
IU defense
#20
RUTG offense
#41
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.32
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

IU defense
Higher-ranked profile
IU defense
#18
RUTG offense
#121
EPA comparison
-0.10
#18
-0.03
#121
Rush EPA

Drive success

IU defense
Higher-ranked profile
IU defense
#4
RUTG offense
#56
Success rates
32%
#4
45%
#56
Success rate
More metrics
-0.06
#16
0.11
#86
EPA / play
1.43
#132
1.34
#18
Explosiveness
19%
#24
15%
#79
Havoc

Current key players

Indiana
QBGrant Wilson
74 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
86.433/729
RBTurbo Richard
587 yds · 5 TD · 9.3 YPC
91.03/1044
WRCharlie Becker
27 rec · 477 yds · 8 TD
88.710/2069
WRNick Marsh
23 rec · 341 yds · 4 TD
82.239/2069
LBJacob Savage
6 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.6
Coverage
63.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
78.6108/1796
LBJeff Utzinger
8 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
82.3
Coverage
66.5
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
76.1157/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Jamari Sharpe · DBout · 2026-09-12

    Indiana cornerbacks A.J. Harris, Jamari Sharpe out vs. Howard - ESPN

Rutgers
QBAJ Surace
475 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
65.6208/729
TEKam Anthony
2 rec · 22 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
76.6
Run blocking
77.5
Penalties
0
90.22/1017
WRKJ Duff
33 rec · 628 yds · 7 TD
87.416/2069
RBAntwan Raymond
469 yds · 4 TD · 5.3 YPC
74.8179/1044
DBKaj Sanders
12 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.3
Coverage
70.6
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
23
Passer rating allowed
89.6
Missed tackles
2
72.6297/2969
DBDK Gilley
19 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.7
Coverage
72.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
91.7
Missed tackles
3
72.3314/2969
Availability reports · 5
  • Kevin Levy · CBout · 2026-09-17

    Levy is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against USC on Saturday.

  • Dylan Lonergan · QBout · 2026-10-04

    Lonergan is dealing with an head injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Antwan Raymond · RBQues. · 2026-09-30

    Raymond is dealing with undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available Saturday against the Indiana.

  • Famah Toure · WRQues. · 2026-09-11

    Toure is nursing with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the USC on Saturday, September 19th.

  • Dino Kaliakmanis · WRQues. · 2026-09-26

    Kaliakmanis is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to suit up against USC on Sunday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

IU
RUTG
vs
Offense
86.4
#31 of 138
QB
65.6
#118 of 138
85.2
#10 of 138
RB
72.3
#104 of 138
83.7
#2 of 138
WR
71.5
#69 of 138
59.0
#127 of 138
TE
90.2
#2 of 138
73.3
#26 of 138
OL
75.6
#14 of 138
Defense
81.7
#8 of 138
DL
71.5
#91 of 138
76.9
#44 of 138
LB
65.5
#133 of 138
72.5
#65 of 138
DB
69.5
#105 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Indiana
opponent
Rutgers
H+6.0
NU#16
-15.7A
A+9.6
MICH#23
-8.5H
H+8.1
USC#17
-7.0H
A+3.0
NEB#12
-11.9H
H+55.0
HOW#233
+51.0H