AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sun Oct 4
#7Away
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
36p
#48Home
Rutgers
0-0 · AVR 55.7
22p
IU 83%17% RUTG
Spread
IU -13.8
Total
59
Moneyline
IU-478RUTG+478
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← IU advantageevenRUTG advantage →
IU throw
RUTG coverage #153RUTG pass rush #21
IU +43
IU run
RUTG front #21RUTG linebackers #132
IU +32
RUTG throw
IU +20
RUTG run
IU +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
Malachi Davis
LT · IU
EDGE · RUTG
94.5
96.3
dead even
when RUTG runs
Antwan Raymond
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · RUTG
MLB · IU
86.0
93.9
IU +8
when RUTG throws
KJ Duff
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · RUTG
CB1 · IU
87.1
86.8
dead even
off the edge· hunting Lonergan
Kwabena Asamoah
vs
Stephen Daley
LT · RUTG
EDGE · IU
73.7
96.6
IU +23
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Ty Morris
RB · IU
MLB · RUTG
77.5
65.5
IU +12
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
Kevyn Humes
X · IU
CB1 · RUTG
78.0
46.7
IU +31

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777
Rutgers
WRKJ Duff
87.15/777
RBAntwan Raymond
86.04/514
LBTy Morris
65.5206/878
QBDylan Lonergan
62.362/308
TEJackson Gister
57.277/287
WRMichael Thomas III
53.7199/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Indiana
opponent
Rutgers
home+14.0
Northwestern#37
-7.3away
home+46.2
Howard
+29.9home
home+1.5
USC#10
-14.8home
away+10.1
Nebraska#41
-1.2home
away-1.2
Michigan#13
-12.4home

Projected margin

80% between -31 and 4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIU +13.895% interval: -37.7 to 10.180% interval: -31.1 to 3.6-31+4IU wins 83%RUTG wins 17%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IU 35–21 RUTGRUTG 18–60 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 21–56 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRUTG 25–53 IU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRUTG 28–49 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 32–46 IU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesRUTG 35–42 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 39–39 IU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRUTG 42–35 IU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRUTG 46–32 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 14–56 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 18–53 IU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 21–49 IU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 25–46 IU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRUTG 28–42 IU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRUTG 32–39 IU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRUTG 35–35 IU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 39–32 IU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 42–28 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 11–53 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 14–49 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 18–46 IU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRUTG 21–42 IU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRUTG 25–39 IU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesRUTG 28–35 IU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRUTG 32–32 IU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRUTG 35–28 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 39–25 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 7–49 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 11–46 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 14–42 IU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRUTG 18–39 IU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRUTG 21–35 IU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesRUTG 25–32 IU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRUTG 28–28 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 32–25 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 35–21 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 4–46 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 7–42 IU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 11–39 IU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 14–35 IU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesRUTG 18–32 IU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRUTG 21–28 IU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRUTG 25–25 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 28–21 IU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 32–18 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 0–42 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 4–39 IU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRUTG 7–35 IU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesRUTG 11–32 IU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRUTG 14–28 IU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRUTG 18–25 IU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRUTG 21–21 IU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRUTG 25–18 IU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRUTG 28–14 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)RUTG 0–35 IU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRUTG 4–32 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 7–28 IU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRUTG 11–25 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 14–21 IU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 18–18 IU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 21–14 IU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesRUTG 25–11 IU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalIU +42IU +28IU +14PKRUTG +14margin →