AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#7Away
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
33p
#41Home
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
23p
IU 76%24% NEB
Spread
IU -10.1
Total
56
Moneyline
IU-315NEB+315
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← IU advantageevenNEB advantage →
IU throw
IU +15
IU run
IU +19
NEB throw
IU +10
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
IU +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
Stephen Daley
LT · NEB
EDGE · IU
76.6
96.6
IU +20
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
Jahsear Whittington
LT · IU
EDGE · NEB
94.5
73.3
IU +21
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · IU
CB1 · NEB
78.0
84.3
NEB +6
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · IU
MLB · NEB
77.5
83.3
NEB +6
when NEB throws
Nyziah Hunter
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · NEB
CB1 · IU
70.0
86.8
IU +17
when NEB runs
Mekhi Nelson
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · NEB
MLB · IU
52.0
93.9
IU +42

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777
Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Indiana
opponent
Nebraska
away+13.8
Rutgers#48
+1.2away
home-8.9
Ohio State#1
-21.5home
away-0.2
Washington#15
-7.8home

Projected margin

80% between -28 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIU +10.195% interval: -34 to 13.880% interval: -27.5 to 7.3-27+7IU wins 76%NEB wins 24%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IU 32–25 NEBNEB 21–56 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 25–53 IU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 28–49 IU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEB 32–46 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 35–42 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 39–39 IU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEB 42–35 IU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 46–32 IU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 49–28 IU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNEB 18–53 IU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 21–49 IU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 25–46 IU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 28–42 IU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEB 32–39 IU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEB 35–35 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 39–32 IU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEB 42–28 IU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 46–25 IU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 14–49 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEB 18–46 IU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEB 21–42 IU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEB 25–39 IU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 28–35 IU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNEB 32–32 IU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEB 35–28 IU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 39–25 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEB 42–21 IU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 11–46 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEB 14–42 IU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 18–39 IU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEB 21–35 IU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEB 25–32 IU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEB 28–28 IU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEB 32–25 IU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEB 35–21 IU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 39–18 IU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 7–42 IU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 11–39 IU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEB 14–35 IU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEB 18–32 IU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 21–28 IU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 25–25 IU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEB 28–21 IU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 32–18 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEB 35–14 IU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 4–39 IU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 7–35 IU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 11–32 IU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 14–28 IU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEB 18–25 IU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEB 21–21 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 25–18 IU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEB 28–14 IU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 32–11 IU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 0–35 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 4–32 IU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 7–28 IU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 11–25 IU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 14–21 IU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 18–18 IU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEB 21–14 IU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 25–11 IU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 28–7 IU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalIU +35IU +21IU +7NEB +7NEB +21margin →