AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#54Away
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
27p
#69Home
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
25p
MINN 55%45% PUR
Spread
MINN -1.7
Total
53
Moneyline
MINN-121PUR+121
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MINN advantageevenPUR advantage →
MINN throw
MINN +36
MINN run
MINN +19
PUR throw
PUR protection #96MINN pass rush #20
MINN +15
PUR run
MINN +46

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Anthony Smith
LT · PUR
EDGE · MINN
57.3
86.8
MINN +29
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
John Nestor
X · PUR
CB1 · MINN
68.9
71.9
MINN +3
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Mister Clark
X · MINN
CB1 · PUR
61.2
73.5
PUR +12
when PUR runs
Fame Ijeboi
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · PUR
MLB · MINN
56.4
78.3
MINN +22
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Charles Correa
RB · MINN
MLB · PUR
69.0
64.8
MINN +4
off the edge· hunting Lindsey
Tony Nelson
vs
Rodney Lora
LT · MINN
EDGE · PUR
50.2
67.2
PUR +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427
Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Minnesota
opponent
Purdue
home-8.1
Iowa#22
-17.3away
home+2.8
UCLA#53
-6.4away
away-13.3
Penn State#21
-17.6away
away-19.4
Indiana#7
-23.6away
away-17.1
Washington#15
-16.3home
away-0.2
Wisconsin#58
+0.6home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMINN +1.795% interval: -25.6 to 22.280% interval: -19.1 to 15.7-19+16MINN wins 55%PUR wins 45%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PUR 28–28 MINNPUR 25–53 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 28–49 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 32–46 MINN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 35–42 MINN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 39–39 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 42–35 MINN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPUR 46–32 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 49–28 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 53–25 MINN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesPUR 21–49 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 25–46 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 28–42 MINN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 32–39 MINN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 35–35 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPUR 39–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 42–28 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 46–25 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 49–21 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPUR 18–46 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 21–42 MINN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 25–39 MINN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 28–35 MINN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPUR 32–32 MINN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPUR 35–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPUR 39–25 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 42–21 MINN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 46–18 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 14–42 MINN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 18–39 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 21–35 MINN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 25–32 MINN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPUR 28–28 MINN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPUR 32–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 35–21 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 39–18 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPUR 42–14 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 11–39 MINN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 14–35 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 18–32 MINN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 21–28 MINN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPUR 25–25 MINN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPUR 28–21 MINN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 32–18 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 35–14 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPUR 39–11 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 7–35 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 11–32 MINN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 14–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 18–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPUR 21–21 MINN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPUR 25–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPUR 28–14 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 32–11 MINN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 35–7 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 4–32 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 7–28 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 11–25 MINN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 14–21 MINN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 18–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPUR 21–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 25–11 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 28–7 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 32–4 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMINN +28MINN +14PKPUR +14PUR +28margin →