AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#48Away
Rutgers
0-0 · AVR 55.7
27p
#47Home
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
30p
RUTG 42%58% MD
Spread
MD -3.0
Total
56
Moneyline
RUTG+140MD-140
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RUTG advantageevenMD advantage →
RUTG throw
RUTG +11
RUTG run
RUTG +27
MD throw
MD protection #69RUTG coverage #153
MD +27
MD run
RUTG front #21RUTG linebackers #132
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Malachi Davis
LT · MD
EDGE · RUTG
67.2
96.3
RUTG +29
when RUTG throws
KJ Duff
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · RUTG
CB1 · MD
87.1
74.9
RUTG +12
when RUTG runs
Antwan Raymond
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · RUTG
MLB · MD
86.0
68.0
RUTG +18
off the edge· hunting Lonergan
Kwabena Asamoah
vs
Zahir Mathis
LT · RUTG
EDGE · MD
73.7
76.3
dead even
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
Ty Morris
RB · MD
MLB · RUTG
69.0
65.5
MD +4
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Kevyn Humes
X · MD
CB1 · RUTG
72.8
46.7
MD +26

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rutgers
WRKJ Duff
87.15/777
RBAntwan Raymond
86.04/514
LBTy Morris
65.5206/878
QBDylan Lonergan
62.362/308
TEJackson Gister
57.277/287
WRMichael Thomas III
53.7199/777
Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Rutgers
opponent
Maryland
away-12.7
Penn State#21
-7.2home
away+0.5
Wisconsin#58
+5.9home
home-14.8
USC#10
-19.3away
home-1.2
Nebraska#41
-5.7away

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMD +3.095% interval: -20.9 to 26.980% interval: -14.4 to 20.3-14+20RUTG wins 42%MD wins 58%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MD 28–28 RUTGMD 25–53 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMD 28–49 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 32–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 35–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 39–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 42–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 46–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 49–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMD 53–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 21–49 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 25–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 28–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 32–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMD 35–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMD 39–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMD 42–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 46–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 49–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 18–46 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 21–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMD 25–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 28–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 32–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMD 35–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMD 39–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 42–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMD 46–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 14–42 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 18–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 21–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 25–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMD 28–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMD 32–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMD 35–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 39–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 42–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMD 11–39 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 14–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMD 18–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 21–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 25–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMD 28–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMD 32–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMD 35–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMD 39–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 7–35 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 11–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 14–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 18–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMD 21–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMD 25–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMD 28–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 32–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 35–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 4–32 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMD 7–28 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 11–25 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 14–21 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 18–18 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 21–14 RUTG neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 25–11 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 28–7 RUTG neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMD 32–4 RUTG neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalRUTG +28RUTG +14PKMD +14MD +28margin →