AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17
#15Away
Washington
0-0 · AVR 72.3
36p
#69Home
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
19p
WASH 87%13% PUR
Spread
WASH -16.3
Total
55
Moneyline
WASH-667PUR+667
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WASH advantageevenPUR advantage →
WASH throw
WASH +54
WASH run
WASH +28
PUR throw
PUR protection #96WASH pass rush #72
WASH +26
PUR run
WASH +25

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WASH throws
Dezmen Roebuck
vs
Mister Clark
X · WASH
CB1 · PUR
86.2
73.5
WASH +13
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
Emmanuel Karnley
X · PUR
CB1 · WASH
68.9
82.4
WASH +13
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Elishah Jackett
vs
Rodney Lora
LT · WASH
EDGE · PUR
82.4
67.2
WASH +15
when PUR runs
Fame Ijeboi
vs
Xe'ree Alexander
RB · PUR
MLB · WASH
56.4
81.2
WASH +25
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Darin Conley
LT · PUR
EDGE · WASH
57.3
74.1
WASH +17
over the middle
Decker DeGraaf
vs
Smiley Bradford
TE · WASH
FS · PUR
71.5
52.1
WASH +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Washington
WRDezmen Roebuck
86.212/777
QBDemond Williams Jr.
83.016/308
CBEmmanuel Karnley
82.467/1427
LBXe'ree Alexanderprobable
81.247/878
SRahshawn Clark
80.986/1427
SAlex McLaughlin
79.298/1427

also out — Washington Football Standing, Jordan Washington, Washington Huskies Running Back (RB), Former Washington football star, Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Washington
opponent
Purdue
home+6.3
Penn State#21
-17.6away
home+6.5
Iowa#22
-17.3away
home+0.2
Indiana#7
-23.6away
home+17.1
Minnesota#54
-1.7home

Projected margin

80% between -34 and 1
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWASH +16.395% interval: -40.2 to 7.680% interval: -33.7 to 1.1-34+1WASH wins 87%PUR wins 13%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WASH 35–21 PURPUR 18–60 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 21–56 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 25–53 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 28–49 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPUR 32–46 WASH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 35–42 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 39–39 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesPUR 42–35 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 46–32 WASH neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesPUR 14–56 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 18–53 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPUR 21–49 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPUR 25–46 WASH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPUR 28–42 WASH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPUR 32–39 WASH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPUR 35–35 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 39–32 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 42–28 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPUR 11–53 WASH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 14–49 WASH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 18–46 WASH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPUR 21–42 WASH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPUR 25–39 WASH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPUR 28–35 WASH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesPUR 32–32 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 35–28 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 39–25 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 7–49 WASH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 11–46 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 14–42 WASH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPUR 18–39 WASH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPUR 21–35 WASH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPUR 25–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 28–28 WASH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 32–25 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 35–21 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 4–46 WASH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 7–42 WASH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 11–39 WASH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 14–35 WASH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesPUR 18–32 WASH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPUR 21–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPUR 25–25 WASH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 28–21 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 32–18 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 0–42 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 4–39 WASH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 7–35 WASH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesPUR 11–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPUR 14–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesPUR 18–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPUR 21–21 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 25–18 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 28–14 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)PUR 0–35 WASH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPUR 4–32 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 7–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesPUR 11–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPUR 14–21 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 18–18 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPUR 21–14 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 25–11 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalWASH +42WASH +28WASH +14PKPUR +14margin →