AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#54Away
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
17p
#7Home
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
37p
MINN 9%91% IU
Spread
IU -19.4
Total
54
Moneyline
MINN+1006IU-1006
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MINN advantageevenIU advantage →
MINN throw
IU +24
MINN run
IU +41
IU throw
MINN pass rush #20
IU +23
IU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
Anthony Smith
LT · IU
EDGE · MINN
94.5
86.8
IU +8
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · MINN
MLB · IU
69.0
93.9
IU +25
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · IU
MLB · MINN
77.5
78.3
dead even
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
John Nestor
X · IU
CB1 · MINN
78.0
71.9
IU +6
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · MINN
CB1 · IU
61.2
86.8
IU +26
off the edge· hunting Lindsey
Tony Nelson
vs
Stephen Daley
LT · MINN
EDGE · IU
50.2
96.6
IU +46

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427
Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Minnesota
opponent
Indiana
away+1.7
Purdue#69
+23.6home
away-17.1
Washington#15
-0.2away
home-2.9
Northwestern#37
+14.0home
home-13.1
Michigan#13
-1.2away

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIU +19.495% interval: -4.5 to 43.380% interval: 2 to 36.8+2+37MINN wins 9%IU wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IU 39–18 MINNIU 35–42 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 39–39 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 42–35 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 46–32 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 49–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIU 53–25 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 56–21 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 60–18 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 63–14 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 32–39 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 35–35 MINN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIU 39–32 MINN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 42–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 46–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIU 49–21 MINN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 53–18 MINN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIU 56–14 MINN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIU 60–11 MINN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIU 28–35 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 32–32 MINN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIU 35–28 MINN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIU 39–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIU 42–21 MINN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIU 46–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIU 49–14 MINN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIU 53–11 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 56–7 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 25–32 MINN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 28–28 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 32–25 MINN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIU 35–21 MINN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIU 39–18 MINN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesIU 42–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIU 46–11 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 49–7 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 53–4 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 21–28 MINN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesIU 25–25 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIU 28–21 MINN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 32–18 MINN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIU 35–14 MINN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIU 39–11 MINN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 42–7 MINN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIU 46–4 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 49–0 MINN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIU 18–25 MINN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIU 21–21 MINN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIU 25–18 MINN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIU 28–14 MINN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIU 32–11 MINN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIU 35–7 MINN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesIU 39–4 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 42–0 MINN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)IU 14–21 MINN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIU 18–18 MINN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIU 21–14 MINN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIU 25–11 MINN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIU 28–7 MINN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIU 32–4 MINN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIU 35–0 MINN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMINN +7IU +7IU +21IU +35IU +49margin →