AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#35Away
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
28p
#47Home
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
27p
ILL 53%47% MD
Spread
ILL -1.1
Total
55
Moneyline
ILL-112MD+112
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ILL advantageevenMD advantage →
ILL throw
ILL +16
ILL run
ILL +13
MD throw
MD protection #69
MD +32
MD run
MD +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Isaiah Thomison
LT · MD
EDGE · ILL
67.2
78.8
ILL +12
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · ILL
CB1 · MD
68.9
74.9
MD +6
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
Zahir Mathis
LT · ILL
EDGE · MD
61.6
76.3
MD +15
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · ILL
MLB · MD
68.9
68.0
dead even
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Matthew Bailey
X · MD
CB1 · ILL
72.8
62.8
MD +10
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
James Kreutz
RB · MD
MLB · ILL
69.0
63.3
MD +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Illinois
opponent
Maryland
home+11.4
Purdue#69
+2.8away
home+2.9
Nebraska#41
-5.7away
away-26.1
Ohio State#1
-29.7away
away+2.5
UCLA#53
+3.9home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKILL +1.195% interval: -25 to 22.880% interval: -18.5 to 16.3-18+16ILL wins 53%MD wins 47%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MD 28–28 ILLMD 25–53 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 28–49 ILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMD 32–46 ILL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMD 35–42 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 39–39 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 42–35 ILL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMD 46–32 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMD 49–28 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 53–25 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMD 21–49 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 25–46 ILL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 28–42 ILL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMD 32–39 ILL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 35–35 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMD 39–32 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMD 42–28 ILL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 46–25 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 49–21 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 18–46 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 21–42 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMD 25–39 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 28–35 ILL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMD 32–32 ILL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMD 35–28 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMD 39–25 ILL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMD 42–21 ILL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMD 46–18 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 14–42 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 18–39 ILL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 21–35 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMD 25–32 ILL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMD 28–28 ILL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMD 32–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMD 35–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMD 39–18 ILL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 42–14 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 11–39 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMD 14–35 ILL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 18–32 ILL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMD 21–28 ILL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMD 25–25 ILL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMD 28–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMD 32–18 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 35–14 ILL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMD 39–11 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 7–35 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMD 11–32 ILL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMD 14–28 ILL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMD 18–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMD 21–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMD 25–18 ILL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMD 28–14 ILL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMD 32–11 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 35–7 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 4–32 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMD 7–28 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMD 11–25 ILL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMD 14–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMD 18–18 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMD 21–14 ILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMD 25–11 ILL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMD 28–7 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMD 32–4 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalILL +28ILL +14PKMD +14MD +28margin →