AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#15Away
Washington
0-0 · AVR 72.3
32p
#41Home
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
24p
WASH 70%30% NEB
Spread
WASH -7.8
Total
56
Moneyline
WASH-237NEB+237
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WASH advantageevenNEB advantage →
WASH throw
WASH +13
WASH run
even
NEB throw
WASH pass rush #72
NEB +5
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WASH throws
Dezmen Roebuck
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · WASH
CB1 · NEB
86.2
84.3
dead even
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Elishah Jackett
vs
Jahsear Whittington
LT · WASH
EDGE · NEB
82.4
73.3
WASH +9
when NEB throws
Nyziah Hunter
vs
Emmanuel Karnley
X · NEB
CB1 · WASH
70.0
82.4
WASH +12
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
Darin Conley
LT · NEB
EDGE · WASH
76.6
74.1
dead even
when WASH runs
Jayden Limar
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · WASH
MLB · NEB
58.6
83.3
NEB +25
over the middle
Decker DeGraaf
vs
Victor Evans III
TE · WASH
FS · NEB
71.5
66.1
WASH +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Washington
WRDezmen Roebuck
86.212/777
QBDemond Williams Jr.
83.016/308
CBEmmanuel Karnley
82.467/1427
LBXe'ree Alexanderprobable
81.247/878
SRahshawn Clark
80.986/1427
SAlex McLaughlin
79.298/1427

also out — Washington Football Standing, Jordan Washington, Washington Huskies Running Back (RB), Former Washington football star, Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Washington
opponent
Nebraska
home+6.5
Iowa#22
-8.8away
away-13.7
Oregon#2
-24.0away
home+0.2
Indiana#7
-10.1home
away+16.7
Michigan State#65
+6.5away

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWASH +7.895% interval: -31.7 to 16.180% interval: -25.2 to 9.6-25+10WASH wins 70%NEB wins 30%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WASH 32–25 NEBNEB 21–56 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 25–53 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 28–49 WASH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEB 32–46 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 35–42 WASH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 39–39 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 42–35 WASH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 46–32 WASH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 49–28 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEB 18–53 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 21–49 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 25–46 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 28–42 WASH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEB 32–39 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEB 35–35 WASH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEB 39–32 WASH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEB 42–28 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 46–25 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 14–49 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 18–46 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 21–42 WASH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 25–39 WASH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEB 28–35 WASH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNEB 32–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEB 35–28 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 39–25 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 42–21 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 11–46 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 14–42 WASH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 18–39 WASH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 21–35 WASH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEB 25–32 WASH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNEB 28–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEB 32–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 35–21 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 39–18 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 7–42 WASH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEB 11–39 WASH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEB 14–35 WASH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEB 18–32 WASH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEB 21–28 WASH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNEB 25–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEB 28–21 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 32–18 WASH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEB 35–14 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 4–39 WASH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEB 7–35 WASH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEB 11–32 WASH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEB 14–28 WASH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEB 18–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEB 21–21 WASH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEB 25–18 WASH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEB 28–14 WASH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEB 32–11 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 0–35 WASH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEB 4–32 WASH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEB 7–28 WASH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEB 11–25 WASH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEB 14–21 WASH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEB 18–18 WASH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEB 21–14 WASH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEB 25–11 WASH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEB 28–7 WASH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalWASH +35WASH +21WASH +7NEB +7NEB +21margin →