CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Fri Nov 6 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
NEB 57.1%42.9% ILL
Projected margin
NEB by 2.9
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
NEB 21 to ILL 16
Win probability
NEB 57.1%

Current team profiles

Nebraska
Illinois

When Nebraska has the ball

Passing

NEB offense
Higher-ranked profile
NEB offense
#47
ILL defense
#126
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.37
#126
Pass EPA

Rushing

NEB offense
Higher-ranked profile
NEB offense
#3
ILL defense
#101
EPA comparison
0.33
#3
0.12
#101
Rush EPA

Drive success

NEB offense
Higher-ranked profile
NEB offense
#36
ILL defense
#117
Success rates
48%
#36
46%
#117
Success rate
More metrics
0.31
#14
0.25
#130
EPA / play
1.38
#14
1.27
#93
Explosiveness
13%
#37
12%
#125
Havoc

When Illinois has the ball

Passing

NEB defense
Higher-ranked profile
NEB defense
#7
ILL offense
#41
EPA comparison
-0.10
#7
0.32
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

ILL offense
Higher-ranked profile
NEB defense
#63
ILL offense
#39
EPA comparison
0.03
#63
0.18
#39
Rush EPA

Drive success

ILL offense
Higher-ranked profile
NEB defense
#18
ILL offense
#15
Success rates
34%
#18
50%
#15
Success rate
More metrics
-0.02
#35
0.23
#34
EPA / play
1.36
#120
1.25
#60
Explosiveness
19%
#28
11%
#14
Havoc

Current key players

Nebraska
QBAnthony Colandrea
1142 yds · 13 TD · 2 INT
91.110/729
RBJamal Rule
333 yds · 5 TD · 7.9 YPC
86.229/1044
LBDerek Wacker
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.4
Coverage
76.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.133/1796
LBOwen Chambliss
26 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.0
Coverage
83.4
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
83.057/1796
CBAndrew Marshall
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.6
Coverage
76.4
Targets allowed
17
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
13
Passer rating allowed
34.7
Missed tackles
1
77.7104/2969
CBVictor Evans III
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
46
Passer rating allowed
65.0
Missed tackles
0
73.1269/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Riley Van Poppel · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Van Poppel is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Oregon on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Larry Miles · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Miles is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will face Oregon on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Nelson · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Nelson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but it is yet to established if he will play against the Oregon on Saturday, October 17th.

Illinois
QBKatin Houser
1246 yds · 11 TD · 3 INT
90.814/729
WRCollin Dixon
40 rec · 546 yds · 8 TD
87.019/2069
LBCameron Thomas
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.3
Coverage
84.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
18
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
80.676/1796
LBWill Holmes
13 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.4
Coverage
60.3
Pressures
16
Pass-rush snaps
92
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
79.491/1796
RBJavari Barnett
54 yds · 1 TD · 5.4 YPC
79.393/1044
DBMatthew Bailey
37 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.2
Coverage
79.8
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
38
Passer rating allowed
20.8
Missed tackles
3
78.681/2969
Availability reports · 11
  • Tanner Hollinger · TEout · 2026-08-11

    Hollinger has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season

  • Alex Perry · WRout · 2026-08-13

    Perry is batting with a shoulder injury and will undergo surgery, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • BJ Thurman · TEout · 2026-08-13

    Thurman is laid up with foot surgery, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Grant Smith · TEout · 2026-08-23

    Smith is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Will Vala III · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Vala III is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will take the field against Ducks on Sunday, October 24t

  • Jacob Eberhart · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Eberhart is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will take the field against Ducks on Sunday, October 24t

  • Jacob Harvey · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.

  • Jayshon Platt · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Platt is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will partake against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.

  • John Forster · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Forster is nursing with a knee injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.

  • Kenyon Alston · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Alston is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.

  • Nas Rankin · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rankin is nursing with a leg injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NEB
ILL
vs
Offense
91.1
#11 of 138
QB
90.8
#14 of 138
83.2
#18 of 138
RB
75.4
#70 of 138
69.6
#86 of 138
WR
75.8
#31 of 138
67.3
#79 of 138
TE
73.7
#44 of 138
71.7
#41 of 138
OL
69.2
#60 of 138
Defense
77.8
#27 of 138
DL
72.8
#74 of 138
79.3
#25 of 138
LB
76.7
#48 of 138
71.6
#74 of 138
DB
73.0
#57 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Nebraska
opponent
Illinois
H+25.0
MD#72
+5.3A
A+18.0
MSU#62
+1.0A
H-10.7
OSU#2
-23.0A
A-10.7
ORE#8
-10.9H
A-1.6
IOWA#20
-1.8H