AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 AM
#41Away
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
27p
#35Home
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
30p
NEB 42%58% ILL
Spread
ILL -2.9
Total
58
Moneyline
NEB+138ILL-138
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NEB advantageevenILL advantage →
NEB throw
NEB +42
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
NEB +17
ILL throw
even
ILL run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
Isaiah Thomison
LT · NEB
EDGE · ILL
76.6
78.8
dead even
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · ILL
CB1 · NEB
68.9
84.3
NEB +15
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · ILL
MLB · NEB
68.9
83.3
NEB +14
over the middle
Kaden Feagin
vs
Victor Evans III
TE · ILL
FS · NEB
72.7
66.1
ILL +7
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
Jahsear Whittington
LT · ILL
EDGE · NEB
61.6
73.3
NEB +12
when NEB throws
Nyziah Hunter
vs
Matthew Bailey
X · NEB
CB1 · ILL
70.0
62.8
NEB +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Nebraska
opponent
Illinois
away-8.8
Iowa#22
-3.4home
away-24.0
Oregon#2
-18.6home
home-21.5
Ohio State#1
-26.1away
home+5.7
Maryland#47
+1.1away
away+6.5
Michigan State#65
+6.8away

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKILL +2.995% interval: -21 to 26.880% interval: -14.5 to 20.2-14+20NEB wins 42%ILL wins 58%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ILL 28–28 NEBILL 25–53 NEB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesILL 28–49 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 32–46 NEB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesILL 35–42 NEB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesILL 39–39 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesILL 42–35 NEB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesILL 46–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesILL 49–28 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 53–25 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 21–49 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 25–46 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 28–42 NEB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 32–39 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesILL 35–35 NEB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesILL 39–32 NEB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesILL 42–28 NEB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesILL 46–25 NEB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 49–21 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 18–46 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 21–42 NEB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 25–39 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesILL 28–35 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 32–32 NEB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 35–28 NEB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 39–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 42–21 NEB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 46–18 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 14–42 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 18–39 NEB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 21–35 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesILL 25–32 NEB neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesILL 28–28 NEB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesILL 32–25 NEB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 35–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 39–18 NEB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 42–14 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 11–39 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 14–35 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 18–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 21–28 NEB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 25–25 NEB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesILL 28–21 NEB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesILL 32–18 NEB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 35–14 NEB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 39–11 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 7–35 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 11–32 NEB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 14–28 NEB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesILL 18–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 21–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 25–18 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 28–14 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesILL 32–11 NEB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesILL 35–7 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 4–32 NEB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesILL 7–28 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 11–25 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 14–21 NEB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 18–18 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesILL 21–14 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesILL 25–11 NEB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 28–7 NEB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesILL 32–4 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalNEB +28NEB +14PKILL +14ILL +28margin →