AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#53Away
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
25p
#54Home
Minnesota
0-0 · AVR 54.4
28p
UCLA 42%58% MINN
Spread
MINN -2.8
Total
52
Moneyline
UCLA+136MINN-136
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UCLA advantageevenMINN advantage →
UCLA throw
MINN pass rush #20
even
UCLA run
MINN +16
MINN throw
UCLA +10
MINN run
UCLA +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
Maverick Baranowski
RB · UCLA
MLB · MINN
82.7
78.3
UCLA +4
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
John Nestor
X · UCLA
CB1 · MINN
87.0
71.9
UCLA +15
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
Anthony Smith
LT · UCLA
EDGE · MINN
69.2
86.8
MINN +18
when MINN runs
Darius Taylor
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · MINN
MLB · UCLA
69.0
84.8
UCLA +16
when MINN throws
Noah Jennings
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · MINN
CB1 · UCLA
61.2
89.4
UCLA +28
off the edge· hunting Lindsey
Tony Nelson
vs
Sahir West
LT · MINN
EDGE · UCLA
50.2
93.8
UCLA +44

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427
Minnesota
LBMaverick Baranowski
78.375/878
LBMatt Kingsbury
76.096/878
DBJohn Nestor
71.9192/1427
RBDarius Taylor
69.057/514
QBDrake Lindsey
68.644/308
DBKerry Brown
63.7391/1427

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UCLA
opponent
Minnesota
away-18.4
Michigan#13
-13.1home
home+6.4
Purdue#69
+1.7away
home+4.5
Wisconsin#58
-0.2away

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMINN +2.895% interval: -21.1 to 26.780% interval: -14.6 to 20.2-15+20UCLA wins 42%MINN wins 58%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MINN 25–25 UCLAMINN 21–49 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 25–46 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 28–42 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMINN 32–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 35–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMINN 39–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 42–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 46–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 49–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 18–46 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 21–42 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 25–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 28–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 32–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 35–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMINN 39–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMINN 42–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMINN 46–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 14–42 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 18–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 21–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 25–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 28–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMINN 32–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMINN 35–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMINN 39–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMINN 42–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 11–39 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMINN 14–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 18–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMINN 21–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMINN 25–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMINN 28–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMINN 32–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMINN 35–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMINN 39–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 7–35 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 11–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMINN 14–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMINN 18–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 21–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMINN 25–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMINN 28–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMINN 32–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMINN 35–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 4–32 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMINN 7–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMINN 11–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMINN 14–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMINN 18–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMINN 21–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMINN 25–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 28–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMINN 32–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMINN 0–28 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMINN 4–25 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMINN 7–21 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMINN 11–18 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMINN 14–14 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMINN 18–11 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMINN 21–7 UCLA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMINN 25–4 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMINN 28–0 UCLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalUCLA +28UCLA +14PKMINN +14MINN +28margin →