AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#47Away
Maryland
0-0 · AVR 56.2
28p
#69Home
Purdue
0-0 · AVR 49.1
25p
MD 58%42% PUR
Spread
MD -2.8
Total
53
Moneyline
MD-137PUR+137
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MD advantageevenPUR advantage →
MD throw
MD protection #69
MD +40
MD run
MD +19
PUR throw
PUR protection #96
MD +11
PUR run
MD +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MD throws
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
vs
Mister Clark
X · MD
CB1 · PUR
72.8
73.5
dead even
when PUR throws
Asaad Waseem
vs
Dontay Joyner
X · PUR
CB1 · MD
68.9
74.9
MD +6
off the edge· hunting Washington
Tellek Lockette
vs
Rodney Lora
LT · MD
EDGE · PUR
67.2
67.2
dead even
when MD runs
DeJuan Williams
vs
Charles Correa
RB · MD
MLB · PUR
69.0
64.8
MD +4
off the edge· hunting Browne
Micah Banuelos
vs
Zahir Mathis
LT · PUR
EDGE · MD
57.3
76.3
MD +19
when PUR runs
Fame Ijeboi
vs
Daniel Wingate
RB · PUR
MLB · MD
56.4
68.0
MD +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Maryland
QBMalik Washington
77.625/308
DBDontay Joyner
74.9155/1427
WRNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding
72.842/777
RBDeJuan Williams
69.058/514
LBDaniel Wingate
68.0177/878
DBJamare Glasker
68.0280/1427

also out — Z. Mathis (LB)

Purdue
DBMister Clark
73.5170/1427
WRAsaad Waseem
68.959/777
LBCharles Correa
64.8218/878
LBHudson Miller
63.8229/878
QBRyan Browne
61.563/308
DBDon Saunders
57.3556/1427

also out — K. Fox (TE), Smiley Bradford

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Maryland
opponent
Purdue
home-7.2
Penn State#21
-17.6away
home+3.9
UCLA#53
-6.4away
home-1.1
Illinois#35
-11.4away
home+5.9
Wisconsin#58
+0.6home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMD +2.895% interval: -26.7 to 21.180% interval: -20.2 to 14.6-20+15MD wins 58%PUR wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ PUR 28–28 MDPUR 25–53 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 28–49 MD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 32–46 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 35–42 MD neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesPUR 39–39 MD neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 42–35 MD neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 46–32 MD neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesPUR 49–28 MD neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesPUR 53–25 MD neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesPUR 21–49 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 25–46 MD neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPUR 28–42 MD neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 32–39 MD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 35–35 MD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPUR 39–32 MD neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPUR 42–28 MD neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 46–25 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 49–21 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPUR 18–46 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 21–42 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 25–39 MD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPUR 28–35 MD neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPUR 32–32 MD neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPUR 35–28 MD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 39–25 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPUR 42–21 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 46–18 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPUR 14–42 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 18–39 MD neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 21–35 MD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPUR 25–32 MD neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPUR 28–28 MD neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPUR 32–25 MD neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPUR 35–21 MD neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 39–18 MD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 42–14 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 11–39 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 14–35 MD neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesPUR 18–32 MD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPUR 21–28 MD neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesPUR 25–25 MD neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesPUR 28–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesPUR 32–18 MD neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesPUR 35–14 MD neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesPUR 39–11 MD neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesPUR 7–35 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 11–32 MD neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesPUR 14–28 MD neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesPUR 18–25 MD neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesPUR 21–21 MD neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesPUR 25–18 MD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 28–14 MD neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesPUR 32–11 MD neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesPUR 35–7 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesPUR 4–32 MD neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesPUR 7–28 MD neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesPUR 11–25 MD neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesPUR 14–21 MD neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesPUR 18–18 MD neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesPUR 21–14 MD neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesPUR 25–11 MD neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesPUR 28–7 MD neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesPUR 32–4 MD neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMD +28MD +14PKPUR +14PUR +28margin →