CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
#72Away
Maryland
2-4 · AVR 58.8
27p
#67Home
Purdue
3-3 · AVR 59.8
28p
Forecast win probability
MD 46.5%53.5% PUR
Projected margin
PUR by 1.4
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
MD 17 to PUR 20
Win probability
PUR 53.5%

Current team profiles

Maryland
Purdue

When Maryland has the ball

Passing

PUR defense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#125
PUR defense
#119
EPA comparison
-0.01
#125
0.34
#119
Pass EPA

Rushing

MD offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#72
PUR defense
#125
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

MD offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD offense
#106
PUR defense
#120
Success rates
40%
#106
46%
#120
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#112
0.25
#132
EPA / play
1.25
#60
1.40
#127
Explosiveness
14%
#45
14%
#105
Havoc

When Purdue has the ball

Passing

PUR offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#65
PUR offense
#24
EPA comparison
0.12
#65
0.40
#24
Pass EPA

Rushing

PUR offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#84
PUR offense
#63
EPA comparison
0.07
#84
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

PUR offense
Higher-ranked profile
MD defense
#86
PUR offense
#44
Success rates
42%
#86
46%
#44
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#78
0.25
#29
EPA / play
1.20
#55
1.21
#83
Explosiveness
16%
#74
12%
#30
Havoc

Current key players

Maryland
QBCardell Williams
63 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
91.87/729
WRZymear Smith
— rec · — yds · — TD
88.411/2069
WRChris Durr Jr.
42 rec · 461 yds · 4 TD
79.959/2069
LBStephen Dean III
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.3
Coverage
62.3
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.0184/1796
DBJamare Glasker
16 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.1
Coverage
71.9
Targets allowed
23
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
166
Passer rating allowed
72.0
Missed tackles
5
74.0228/2969
LBTrey Reddick
19 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.2
Coverage
68.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
8
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
72.1288/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Zahir Mathis · LBout · 2026-08-13

    Mathis is battling with a leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • Cardell Williams · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Williams is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Lavon Johnson · DLQues. · 2026-10-11

    Johnson is dealing with an undisclosed injury,, and it is undetermined if he will face against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Daniel Leahy · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Leahy is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Knights on Saturday, October 17th.

Purdue
QBRyan Browne
1390 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
77.595/729
WRAsaad Waseem
27 rec · 453 yds · 1 TD
83.630/2069
DBMister Clark
5 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Coverage
76.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
59
Passer rating allowed
95.8
Missed tackles
1
79.965/2969
RBFame Ijeboi
354 yds · 6 TD · 4.1 YPC
79.590/1044
WRXavier Townsend
28 rec · 307 yds · 2 TD
74.0146/2069
LBHudson Miller
7 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
64.4
Coverage
70.6
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
70.1362/1796
Availability reports · 1
  • Kylan Fox · TEout · 2026-08-13

    Fox is laid up with a knee injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MD
PUR
vs
Offense
91.8
#7 of 138
QB
77.5
#72 of 138
70.1
#118 of 138
RB
75.2
#72 of 138
80.8
#9 of 138
WR
77.0
#26 of 138
61.1
#111 of 138
TE
69.3
#69 of 138
68.8
#62 of 138
OL
61.7
#121 of 138
Defense
74.5
#59 of 138
DL
72.2
#83 of 138
72.5
#84 of 138
LB
65.6
#132 of 138
67.5
#122 of 138
DB
66.1
#133 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Maryland
opponent
Purdue
H-51.0
UCLA#24
-14.0A
H-5.3
ILL#47
+7.0A
H-13.2
PSU#43
-19.7A
H-1.8
WIS#32
-3.0H