AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#41Away
Nebraska
0-0 · AVR 58.2
30p
#48Home
Rutgers
0-0 · AVR 55.7
29p
NEB 53%47% RUTG
Spread
NEB -1.2
Total
59
Moneyline
NEB-111RUTG+111
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NEB advantageevenRUTG advantage →
NEB throw
RUTG coverage #153RUTG pass rush #21
NEB +37
NEB run
NEB line #15NEB backs #103
NEB +9
RUTG throw
even
RUTG run
RUTG +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Colandrea
Elijah Pritchett
vs
Malachi Davis
LT · NEB
EDGE · RUTG
76.6
96.3
RUTG +20
when RUTG throws
KJ Duff
vs
Dwayne McDougle III
X · RUTG
CB1 · NEB
87.1
84.3
dead even
when RUTG runs
Antwan Raymond
vs
Owen Chambliss
RB · RUTG
MLB · NEB
86.0
83.3
dead even
off the edge· hunting Lonergan
Kwabena Asamoah
vs
Jahsear Whittington
LT · RUTG
EDGE · NEB
73.7
73.3
dead even
over the middle
Jackson Gister
vs
Victor Evans III
TE · RUTG
FS · NEB
57.2
66.1
NEB +9
when NEB runs
Mekhi Nelson
vs
Ty Morris
RB · NEB
MLB · RUTG
52.0
65.5
RUTG +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nebraska
SDwayne McDougle III
84.353/1427
LBOwen Chambliss
83.331/878
QBAnthony Colandrea
73.930/308
CBDonovan Jones
70.6225/1427
WRNyziah Hunter
70.056/777
CBAndrew Marshall
69.4254/1427

also out — Kahmir Prescott (S)

Rutgers
WRKJ Duff
87.15/777
RBAntwan Raymond
86.04/514
LBTy Morris
65.5206/878
QBDylan Lonergan
62.362/308
TEJackson Gister
57.277/287
WRMichael Thomas III
53.7199/777

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Nebraska
opponent
Rutgers
home+5.7
Maryland#47
-3.0away
home-10.1
Indiana#7
-13.8home
away+6.5
Michigan State#65
+7.8home

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNEB +1.295% interval: -25.1 to 22.780% interval: -18.6 to 16.2-19+16NEB wins 53%RUTG wins 47%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ RUTG 28–28 NEBRUTG 25–53 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 28–49 NEB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 32–46 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRUTG 35–42 NEB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 39–39 NEB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesRUTG 42–35 NEB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRUTG 46–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesRUTG 49–28 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRUTG 53–25 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRUTG 21–49 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 25–46 NEB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 28–42 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 32–39 NEB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRUTG 35–35 NEB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesRUTG 39–32 NEB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesRUTG 42–28 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRUTG 46–25 NEB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesRUTG 49–21 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 18–46 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 21–42 NEB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 25–39 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRUTG 28–35 NEB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRUTG 32–32 NEB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesRUTG 35–28 NEB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesRUTG 39–25 NEB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesRUTG 42–21 NEB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 46–18 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 14–42 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 18–39 NEB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 21–35 NEB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesRUTG 25–32 NEB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRUTG 28–28 NEB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesRUTG 32–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRUTG 35–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 39–18 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 42–14 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 11–39 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 14–35 NEB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesRUTG 18–32 NEB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesRUTG 21–28 NEB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesRUTG 25–25 NEB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesRUTG 28–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRUTG 32–18 NEB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 35–14 NEB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 39–11 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 7–35 NEB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesRUTG 11–32 NEB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesRUTG 14–28 NEB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 18–25 NEB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesRUTG 21–21 NEB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesRUTG 25–18 NEB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesRUTG 28–14 NEB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesRUTG 32–11 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRUTG 35–7 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesRUTG 4–32 NEB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesRUTG 7–28 NEB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesRUTG 11–25 NEB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesRUTG 14–21 NEB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesRUTG 18–18 NEB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesRUTG 21–14 NEB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesRUTG 25–11 NEB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesRUTG 28–7 NEB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesRUTG 32–4 NEB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalNEB +28NEB +14PKRUTG +14RUTG +28margin →