AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 2:00 AM
#35Away
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
29p
#53Home
UCLA
0-0 · AVR 54.5
27p
ILL 56%44% UCLA
Spread
ILL -2.5
Total
56
Moneyline
ILL-129UCLA+129
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ILL advantageevenUCLA advantage →
ILL throw
even
ILL run
UCLA +6
UCLA throw
UCLA +29
UCLA run
UCLA +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Derrick Barksdale
X · ILL
CB1 · UCLA
68.9
89.4
UCLA +20
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
Sahir West
LT · ILL
EDGE · UCLA
61.6
93.8
UCLA +32
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Drew Spinogatti
RB · ILL
MLB · UCLA
68.9
84.8
UCLA +16
when UCLA throws
Landon Ellis
vs
Matthew Bailey
X · UCLA
CB1 · ILL
87.0
62.8
UCLA +24
off the edge· hunting Iamaleava
Hall Schmidt
vs
Isaiah Thomison
LT · UCLA
EDGE · ILL
69.2
78.8
ILL +10
when UCLA runs
Wayne Knight
vs
James Kreutz
RB · UCLA
MLB · ILL
82.7
63.3
UCLA +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

UCLA
DBDerrick Barksdale
89.415/1427
WRLandon Ellis
87.07/777
LBDrew Spinogatti
84.822/878
RBWayne Knight
82.715/514
LBSammy Omosigho
82.441/878
DBTao Johnson
81.872/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Illinois
opponent
UCLA
home-18.6
Oregon#2
-28.6away
home+11.4
Purdue#69
+6.4home
away+1.1
Maryland#47
-3.9away
away+6.8
Michigan State#65
+6.8home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKILL +2.595% interval: -26.4 to 21.480% interval: -19.8 to 14.9-20+15ILL wins 56%UCLA wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCLA 28–28 ILLUCLA 25–53 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 28–49 ILL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 32–46 ILL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCLA 35–42 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 39–39 ILL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 42–35 ILL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 46–32 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 49–28 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 53–25 ILL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUCLA 21–49 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 25–46 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–42 ILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 32–39 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–35 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 39–32 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 42–28 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 46–25 ILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 49–21 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 18–46 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 21–42 ILL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 25–39 ILL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 28–35 ILL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 32–32 ILL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCLA 35–28 ILL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 39–25 ILL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 42–21 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 46–18 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 14–42 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 18–39 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 21–35 ILL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCLA 25–32 ILL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–28 ILL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCLA 32–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–21 ILL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 39–18 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 42–14 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 11–39 ILL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCLA 14–35 ILL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCLA 18–32 ILL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCLA 21–28 ILL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCLA 25–25 ILL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCLA 32–18 ILL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCLA 35–14 ILL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCLA 39–11 ILL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCLA 7–35 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 11–32 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 14–28 ILL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCLA 18–25 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 21–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUCLA 25–18 ILL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCLA 28–14 ILL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCLA 32–11 ILL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCLA 35–7 ILL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCLA 4–32 ILL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCLA 7–28 ILL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCLA 11–25 ILL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCLA 14–21 ILL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUCLA 18–18 ILL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCLA 21–14 ILL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCLA 25–11 ILL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCLA 28–7 ILL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCLA 32–4 ILL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalILL +28ILL +14PKUCLA +14UCLA +28margin →