AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#7Away
Indiana
0-0 · AVR 76.7
28p
#15Home
Washington
0-0 · AVR 72.3
28p
IU 50%50% WASH
Spread
WASH -0.2
Total
56
Moneyline
IU+101WASH-101
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← IU advantageevenWASH advantage →
IU throw
WASH pass rush #72
IU +11
IU run
IU +25
WASH throw
IU +6
WASH run
IU +32

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Elishah Jackett
vs
Stephen Daley
LT · WASH
EDGE · IU
82.4
96.6
IU +14
when WASH throws
Dezmen Roebuck
vs
Amare Ferrell
X · WASH
CB1 · IU
86.2
86.8
dead even
off the edge· hunting Hoover
Carter Smith
vs
Darin Conley
LT · IU
EDGE · WASH
94.5
74.1
IU +20
when IU throws
Shazz Preston
vs
Emmanuel Karnley
X · IU
CB1 · WASH
78.0
82.4
WASH +4
when IU runs
Turbo Richard
vs
Xe'ree Alexander
RB · IU
MLB · WASH
77.5
81.2
WASH +4
when WASH runs
Jayden Limar
vs
Rolijah Hardy
RB · WASH
MLB · IU
58.6
93.9
IU +35

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Indiana
LBRolijah Hardy
93.91/878
LBIsaiah Jonesprobable
93.53/878
DBAmare Ferrell
86.831/1427
DBJamari Sharpe
85.736/1427
QBJosh Hoover
80.220/308
WRShazz Preston
78.027/777
Washington
WRDezmen Roebuck
86.212/777
QBDemond Williams Jr.
83.016/308
CBEmmanuel Karnley
82.467/1427
LBXe'ree Alexanderprobable
81.247/878
SRahshawn Clark
80.986/1427
SAlex McLaughlin
79.298/1427

also out — Washington Football Standing, Jordan Washington, Washington Huskies Running Back (RB), Former Washington football star, Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Indiana
opponent
Washington
home+23.6
Purdue#69
+16.3away
home+1.5
USC#10
-5.8away
away+10.1
Nebraska#41
+7.8away
home+19.4
Minnesota#54
+17.1home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWASH +0.295% interval: -23.7 to 24.180% interval: -17.2 to 17.6-17+18IU wins 50%WASH wins 50%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WASH 28–28 IUWASH 25–53 IU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 28–49 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 32–46 IU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWASH 35–42 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 39–39 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 42–35 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 46–32 IU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWASH 49–28 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 53–25 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 21–49 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 25–46 IU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 28–42 IU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWASH 32–39 IU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWASH 35–35 IU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWASH 39–32 IU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWASH 42–28 IU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 46–25 IU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 49–21 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 18–46 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 21–42 IU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 25–39 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 28–35 IU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 32–32 IU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWASH 35–28 IU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 39–25 IU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWASH 42–21 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 46–18 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 14–42 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 18–39 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 21–35 IU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWASH 25–32 IU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWASH 28–28 IU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWASH 32–25 IU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWASH 35–21 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 39–18 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 42–14 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 11–39 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 14–35 IU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWASH 18–32 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 21–28 IU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWASH 25–25 IU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWASH 28–21 IU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWASH 32–18 IU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWASH 35–14 IU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWASH 39–11 IU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWASH 7–35 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 11–32 IU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 14–28 IU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWASH 18–25 IU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWASH 21–21 IU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWASH 25–18 IU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWASH 28–14 IU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWASH 32–11 IU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWASH 35–7 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWASH 4–32 IU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWASH 7–28 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 11–25 IU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWASH 14–21 IU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 18–18 IU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWASH 21–14 IU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWASH 25–11 IU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWASH 28–7 IU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWASH 32–4 IU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalIU +28IU +14PKWASH +14WASH +28margin →