AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 6:00 PM
Bronze Boot
#119Away
Wyoming
0-0 · AVR 32.7
26p
#129Home
Colorado State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
23p
WYO 60%40% CSU
Spread
WYO -2.8
Total
49
Moneyline
WYO-147CSU+147
Against the market
WYO +6.3line CSU -3.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WYO advantageevenCSU advantage →
WYO throw
CSU +10
WYO run
WYO line #121WYO backs #71
WYO +12
CSU throw
WYO coverage #68WYO pass rush #138
WYO +14
CSU run
CSU backs #80
CSU +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
over the middle
Juice Vereen
vs
Jaden DaCosta
TE · CSU
FS · WYO
73.8
57.2
CSU +17
when CSU throws
Tay Lanier
vs
Ian Bell
X · CSU
CB1 · WYO
52.7
77.1
WYO +24
when CSU runs
Mel Brown
vs
Anthony Beavers
RB · CSU
MLB · WYO
55.6
65.7
WYO +10
when WYO runs
Diore Hubbard
vs
Paul Tangelo
RB · WYO
MLB · CSU
57.2
59.0
dead even
when WYO throws
Charlie Coenen
vs
Lemondre Joe
X · WYO
CB1 · CSU
41.3
56.5
CSU +15
over the middle
Kyle Frendt
vs
Jace Bellah
TE · WYO
FS · CSU
35.2
46.0
CSU +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wyoming
CBIan Bell
77.1123/1427
SDesman Hearns
70.9212/1427
LBAnthony Beavers
65.7201/878
DBDavid Leonard
58.4524/1427
RBDiore Hubbard
57.2137/514
QBLandon Sims
42.9244/308

also out — T. Hasselbeck (QB), T. Nystrom (WR)

Colorado State
TEJuice Vereen
73.84/287
LBPaul Tangelo
59.0310/878
DBLemondre Joe
56.5574/1427
RBMel Brown
55.6161/514
WRTay Lanier
52.7240/777
DBJahari Rogers
51.6714/1427

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWYO +2.8MKT95% interval: -32 to 2780% interval: -23 to 16-23+16WYO wins 60%CSU wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CSU 25–25 WYOCSU 21–49 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCSU 25–46 WYO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 28–42 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCSU 32–39 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCSU 35–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCSU 39–32 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCSU 42–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCSU 46–25 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 49–21 WYO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCSU 18–46 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 21–42 WYO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCSU 25–39 WYO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCSU 28–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCSU 32–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 35–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 39–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 42–21 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 46–18 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCSU 14–42 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 18–39 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCSU 21–35 WYO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCSU 25–32 WYO neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCSU 28–28 WYO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCSU 32–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCSU 35–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCSU 39–18 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 42–14 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 11–39 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCSU 14–35 WYO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCSU 18–32 WYO neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCSU 21–28 WYO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 25–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCSU 28–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 32–18 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCSU 35–14 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 39–11 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 7–35 WYO neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 11–32 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCSU 14–28 WYO neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCSU 18–25 WYO neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCSU 21–21 WYO neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 25–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCSU 28–14 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCSU 32–11 WYO neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 35–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 4–32 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 7–28 WYO neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCSU 11–25 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCSU 14–21 WYO neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 18–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCSU 21–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 25–11 WYO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCSU 28–7 WYO neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCSU 32–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCSU 0–28 WYO neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCSU 4–25 WYO neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 7–21 WYO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCSU 11–18 WYO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCSU 14–14 WYO neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 18–11 WYO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 21–7 WYO neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCSU 25–4 WYO neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 28–0 WYO neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalWYO +28WYO +14PKCSU +14CSU +28margin →