CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
IDST 8.3%91.7% USU
Projected margin
USU by 22.2
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
USU 2 to USU 43
Win probability
USU 91.7%
FinalIDST 29 · USU 17model had +22.2, off by 34.2

Current team profiles

Idaho State
Utah State

When Idaho State has the ball

Passing

No comparison
IDST offense
—
USU defense
#60
EPA comparison
—
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
IDST offense
—
USU defense
#40
EPA comparison
—
-0.02
#40
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
IDST offense
#9
USU defense
#60
Success rates
49%
#9
39%
#60
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#23
0.05
#59
EPA / play
0.25
#5
1.18
#46
Explosiveness
—
14%
#101
Havoc

When Utah State has the ball

Passing

No comparison
IDST defense
—
USU offense
#133
EPA comparison
—
-0.10
#133
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
IDST defense
—
USU offense
#122
EPA comparison
—
-0.05
#122
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
IDST defense
#80
USU offense
#131
Success rates
45%
#80
35%
#131
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#51
-0.08
#132
EPA / play
0.20
#42
1.39
#8
Explosiveness
—
19%
#130
Havoc

Current key players

Idaho State
QBWyatt Horton
18 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
90.17/370
LBJacob Perez
42 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.9
Coverage
82.2
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
28
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
82.526/1054
DBJackson Daniels
21 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.0
Coverage
78.4
Targets allowed
23
Rec allowed
12
Yards allowed
104
Passer rating allowed
60.8
Missed tackles
5
80.638/1765
RBTytan Mason
242 yds · 2 TD · 7.3 YPC
80.430/631
WRAdam Watts
2 rec · 25 yds · 0 TD
80.026/1229
LBDevin Rodriguez
8 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.0
Coverage
63.9
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
79.245/1054
Utah State
QBGrady Brosterhous
764 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
49.1374/729
LBAsher Cunningham
34 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.8
Coverage
74.0
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
38
Missed tackles
6
Forced fumbles
1
83.455/1796
WREli Wood
30 rec · 388 yds · 4 TD
80.552/2069
SBrevin Hamblin
42 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.2
Coverage
65.8
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
140
Passer rating allowed
71.5
Missed tackles
10
74.9198/2969
LBAdonis Jackson
14 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.2
Coverage
53.6
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
99
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
72.9263/1796
CBD'Angelo Mayes
23 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.3
Coverage
71.6
Targets allowed
30
Rec allowed
17
Yards allowed
226
Passer rating allowed
77.9
Missed tackles
2
70.2435/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • J. Nelson · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Nelson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Nikko Boncore · WRout · 2026-10-07

    Boncore is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Sesi Vailahi · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Vailahi is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be available against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nehemiah Washington · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Anthony Garcia · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Garcia is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Rex Haynes · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Haynes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Kache Kaio · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Kaio is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • McCae Hillstead · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Hillstead is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will be suit up against the Bobcats on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

IDST
USU
vs
Offense
90.1
#7 of 125
QB
49.1
#138 of 138
77.4
#23 of 126
RB
68.3
#127 of 138
72.9
#25 of 126
WR
67.2
#118 of 138
not rated
TE
59.9
#123 of 138
63.7
#69 of 125
OL
62.6
#119 of 138
Defense
73.0
#40 of 126
DL
68.5
#120 of 138
78.1
#14 of 126
LB
76.3
#50 of 138
73.8
#34 of 126
DB
69.5
#104 of 138
Common opponents