AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 AM
#122Away
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 30.8
27p
#133Home
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
26p
ORST 53%47% UTEP
Spread
ORST -1.1
Total
53
Moneyline
ORST-112UTEP+112
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ORST advantageevenUTEP advantage →
ORST throw
ORST protection #57
UTEP +12
ORST run
UTEP +10
UTEP throw
ORST +36
UTEP run
ORST +39

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ORST runs
AJ Newberry
vs
Shay Smith
RB · ORST
MLB · UTEP
53.9
80.0
UTEP +26
when UTEP runs
Tavorus Jones
vs
Aiden Sullivan
RB · UTEP
MLB · ORST
51.0
70.3
ORST +19
off the edge· hunting Murphy
Nathan Elu
vs
Shakaun Bowser
LT · ORST
EDGE · UTEP
48.3
63.5
UTEP +15
when UTEP throws
Marcus Torres
vs
Sailasa Vadrawale III
X · UTEP
CB1 · ORST
36.6
72.4
ORST +36
when ORST throws
Karson Boschma
vs
Kode Lowe
X · ORST
CB1 · UTEP
42.5
61.7
UTEP +19
over the middle
Gabe Milbourn
vs
Jaime Guerrero
TE · ORST
FS · UTEP
40.4
57.7
UTEP +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oregon State
DBSailasa Vadrawale III
72.4183/1427
LBAiden Sullivan
70.3141/878
LBTakari Hickle
67.3189/878
DBZephen Walker
57.5549/1427
DBHarlem Howard
56.2585/1427
RBAJ Newberry
53.9182/514
UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKORST +1.195% interval: -25 to 22.880% interval: -18.4 to 16.3-18+16ORST wins 53%UTEP wins 47%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTEP 28–28 ORSTUTEP 25–53 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 28–49 ORST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 32–46 ORST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 35–42 ORST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTEP 39–39 ORST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTEP 42–35 ORST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 46–32 ORST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTEP 49–28 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 53–25 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTEP 21–49 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 25–46 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTEP 28–42 ORST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 32–39 ORST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTEP 35–35 ORST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 39–32 ORST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTEP 42–28 ORST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTEP 46–25 ORST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 49–21 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 18–46 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 21–42 ORST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTEP 25–39 ORST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTEP 28–35 ORST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTEP 32–32 ORST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTEP 35–28 ORST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 39–25 ORST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTEP 42–21 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTEP 46–18 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 14–42 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 18–39 ORST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 21–35 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTEP 25–32 ORST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTEP 28–28 ORST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTEP 32–25 ORST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTEP 35–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 39–18 ORST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTEP 42–14 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 11–39 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTEP 14–35 ORST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTEP 18–32 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTEP 21–28 ORST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTEP 25–25 ORST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTEP 28–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTEP 32–18 ORST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTEP 35–14 ORST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTEP 39–11 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 7–35 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTEP 11–32 ORST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTEP 14–28 ORST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTEP 18–25 ORST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTEP 21–21 ORST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTEP 25–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTEP 28–14 ORST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTEP 32–11 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTEP 35–7 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 4–32 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTEP 7–28 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTEP 11–25 ORST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTEP 14–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTEP 18–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTEP 21–14 ORST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTEP 25–11 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTEP 28–7 ORST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTEP 32–4 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalORST +28ORST +14PKUTEP +14UTEP +28margin →