CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 9:00 PM ET
#79Away
Oregon State
1-2 · AVR 57.6
33
Final
#151Home
UTEP
1-2 · AVR 44.7
7
Forecast win probability
ORST 78.5%21.6% UTEP
Projected margin
ORST by 11.2
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
ORST 31 to UTEP 7
Win probability
ORST 78.5%
FinalORST 33 · UTEP 7model had -11.2, off by 14.8

Current team profiles

Oregon State
UTEP

When Oregon State has the ball

Passing

ORST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST offense
#11
UTEP defense
#137
EPA comparison
0.50
#11
0.48
#137
Pass EPA

Rushing

ORST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST offense
#81
UTEP defense
#107
EPA comparison
0.08
#81
0.14
#107
Rush EPA

Drive success

ORST offense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST offense
#11
UTEP defense
#127
Success rates
51%
#11
47%
#127
Success rate
More metrics
0.32
#10
0.24
#128
EPA / play
1.26
#45
1.22
#71
Explosiveness
11%
#21
13%
#117
Havoc

When UTEP has the ball

Passing

ORST defense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST defense
#49
UTEP offense
#136
EPA comparison
0.08
#49
-0.18
#136
Pass EPA

Rushing

ORST defense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST defense
#52
UTEP offense
#132
EPA comparison
0.01
#52
-0.10
#132
Rush EPA

Drive success

ORST defense
Higher-ranked profile
ORST defense
#71
UTEP offense
#135
Success rates
40%
#71
33%
#135
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#55
-0.18
#138
EPA / play
1.08
#18
1.28
#39
Explosiveness
17%
#45
23%
#137
Havoc

Current key players

Oregon State
QBBraden Atkinson
1827 yds · 16 TD · 2 INT
84.947/729
WRJesse Legree
28 rec · 741 yds · 9 TD
89.68/2069
TELandon Cook
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
59.9
Penalties
0
80.723/1017
LBTakari Hickle
27 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.6
Coverage
60.5
Pressures
17
Pass-rush snaps
116
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
1
77.2135/1796
LBKord Shaw
20 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.9
Coverage
71.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
6
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
75.3174/1796
RBAJ Newberry
271 yds · 2 TD · 6.0 YPC
73.9195/1044
UTEP
QBEJ Colson Jr.
541 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT
60.2270/729
SKane White-Tinsley
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
78.780/2969
CBTJ Tillman
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.0
Coverage
76.0
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
76.7141/2969
CBDecorian Thompson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.6
Coverage
73.5
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
32
Passer rating allowed
68.8
Missed tackles
1
73.8243/2969
LBVashon Brunswick II
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
61.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
70.0370/1796
LBGarrett Hawkins
20 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
86.3
Coverage
50.9
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
69.9374/1796
Availability reports · 3
  • EJ Colson Jr. · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Colson Jr. is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • CJ Simon · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Simon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Mason Ferguson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ferguson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ORST
UTEP
vs
Offense
84.9
#41 of 138
QB
60.2
#131 of 138
70.9
#113 of 138
RB
63.0
#138 of 138
72.0
#60 of 138
WR
68.3
#103 of 138
80.7
#23 of 138
TE
60.0
#121 of 138
72.6
#30 of 138
OL
63.8
#106 of 138
Defense
65.1
#136 of 138
DL
71.2
#94 of 138
75.6
#56 of 138
LB
69.3
#108 of 138
66.9
#126 of 138
DB
74.1
#44 of 138
Common opponents