AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 10:00 PM
#122Away
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 30.8
26p
#129Home
Colorado State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
28p
ORST 45%55% CSU
Spread
CSU -1.8
Total
54
Moneyline
ORST+122CSU-122
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ORST advantageevenCSU advantage →
ORST throw
ORST protection #57
ORST +8
ORST run
ORST +29
CSU throw
ORST +16
CSU run
CSU backs #80
ORST +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CSU runs
Mel Brown
vs
Aiden Sullivan
RB · CSU
MLB · ORST
55.6
70.3
ORST +15
when CSU throws
Tay Lanier
vs
Sailasa Vadrawale III
X · CSU
CB1 · ORST
52.7
72.4
ORST +20
over the middle
Juice Vereen
vs
Trey Glasper
TE · CSU
FS · ORST
73.8
51.1
CSU +23
when ORST runs
AJ Newberry
vs
Paul Tangelo
RB · ORST
MLB · CSU
53.9
59.0
CSU +5
off the edge· hunting Murphy
Nathan Elu
vs
Gabe Jones
LT · ORST
EDGE · CSU
48.3
62.7
CSU +14
when ORST throws
Karson Boschma
vs
Lemondre Joe
X · ORST
CB1 · CSU
42.5
56.5
CSU +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oregon State
DBSailasa Vadrawale III
72.4183/1427
LBAiden Sullivan
70.3141/878
LBTakari Hickle
67.3189/878
DBZephen Walker
57.5549/1427
DBHarlem Howard
56.2585/1427
RBAJ Newberry
53.9182/514
Colorado State
TEJuice Vereen
73.84/287
LBPaul Tangelo
59.0310/878
DBLemondre Joe
56.5574/1427
RBMel Brown
55.6161/514
WRTay Lanier
52.7240/777
DBJahari Rogers
51.6714/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oregon State
opponent
Colorado State
home-11.4
Texas State#59
-17.1away
home-7.3
Washington State#85
-13.0away
home-5.2
Utah State#92
-10.9away
away-16.8
Boise State#60
-12.4home
home-11.1
San Diego State#64
-11.8home
away-12.2
Fresno State#87
-12.9away

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCSU +1.895% interval: -22.1 to 25.780% interval: -15.6 to 19.2-16+19ORST wins 45%CSU wins 55%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CSU 28–28 ORSTCSU 25–53 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCSU 28–49 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 32–46 ORST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCSU 35–42 ORST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCSU 39–39 ORST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCSU 42–35 ORST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCSU 46–32 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 49–28 ORST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 53–25 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 21–49 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCSU 25–46 ORST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCSU 28–42 ORST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCSU 32–39 ORST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 35–35 ORST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCSU 39–32 ORST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCSU 42–28 ORST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCSU 46–25 ORST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCSU 49–21 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCSU 18–46 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 21–42 ORST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 25–39 ORST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCSU 28–35 ORST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCSU 32–32 ORST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCSU 35–28 ORST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCSU 39–25 ORST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 42–21 ORST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCSU 46–18 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 14–42 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 18–39 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 21–35 ORST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCSU 25–32 ORST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCSU 28–28 ORST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCSU 32–25 ORST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCSU 35–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCSU 39–18 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 42–14 ORST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 11–39 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 14–35 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 18–32 ORST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCSU 21–28 ORST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 25–25 ORST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCSU 28–21 ORST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCSU 32–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCSU 35–14 ORST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCSU 39–11 ORST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 7–35 ORST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCSU 11–32 ORST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCSU 14–28 ORST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCSU 18–25 ORST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCSU 21–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCSU 25–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCSU 28–14 ORST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCSU 32–11 ORST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCSU 35–7 ORST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCSU 4–32 ORST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCSU 7–28 ORST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCSU 11–25 ORST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCSU 14–21 ORST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCSU 18–18 ORST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCSU 21–14 ORST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCSU 25–11 ORST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCSU 28–7 ORST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCSU 32–4 ORST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalORST +28ORST +14PKCSU +14CSU +28margin →