AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 10:00 PM
#85Away
Washington State
0-0 · AVR 45.3
31p
#122Home
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 30.8
23p
WSU 69%31% ORST
Spread
WSU -7.3
Total
54
Moneyline
WSU-223ORST+223
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WSU advantageevenORST advantage →
WSU throw
ORST +24
WSU run
WSU backs #73
ORST +18
ORST throw
ORST protection #57
WSU +19
ORST run
WSU +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WSU runs
Kirby Vorhees
vs
Aiden Sullivan
RB · WSU
MLB · ORST
63.2
70.3
ORST +7
off the edge· hunting Murphy
Nathan Elu
vs
Paul Hutson III
LT · ORST
EDGE · WSU
48.3
84.5
WSU +36
when ORST runs
AJ Newberry
vs
DJ Warner
RB · ORST
MLB · WSU
53.9
69.6
WSU +16
when WSU throws
Tony Freeman
vs
Sailasa Vadrawale III
X · WSU
CB1 · ORST
50.2
72.4
ORST +22
when ORST throws
Karson Boschma
vs
Jack Bal
X · ORST
CB1 · WSU
42.5
62.4
WSU +20
over the middle
Trey Leckner
vs
Trey Glasper
TE · WSU
FS · ORST
47.8
51.1
ORST +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Washington State
LBDJ Warner
69.6153/878
RBKirby Vorhees
63.283/514
SJack Bal
62.4420/1427
CBJalil Tucker
54.9627/1427
CBJamarey Smith
53.0678/1427
WRTony Freeman
50.2307/777

also out — T. Leckner (TE), Hudson Cedarland (TE), J. Dugger (QB)

Oregon State
DBSailasa Vadrawale III
72.4183/1427
LBAiden Sullivan
70.3141/878
LBTakari Hickle
67.3189/878
DBZephen Walker
57.5549/1427
DBHarlem Howard
56.2585/1427
RBAJ Newberry
53.9182/514

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Washington State
opponent
Oregon State
home-1.9
Boise State#60
-16.8away
home+13.0
Colorado State#129
-1.8away
home+2.6
Fresno State#87
-12.2away
away-6.6
Texas State#59
-11.4home
away-0.4
Utah State#92
-5.2home
away-6.3
San Diego State#64
-11.1home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWSU +7.395% interval: -31.2 to 16.680% interval: -24.7 to 10.1-25+10WSU wins 69%ORST wins 31%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WSU 32–25 ORSTORST 21–56 WSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 25–53 WSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 28–49 WSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORST 32–46 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 35–42 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORST 39–39 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 42–35 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORST 46–32 WSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 49–28 WSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 18–53 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 21–49 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORST 25–46 WSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORST 28–42 WSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 32–39 WSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORST 35–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORST 39–32 WSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORST 42–28 WSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 46–25 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 14–49 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 18–46 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORST 21–42 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORST 25–39 WSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORST 28–35 WSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesORST 32–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesORST 35–28 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 39–25 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORST 42–21 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 11–46 WSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORST 14–42 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORST 18–39 WSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORST 21–35 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 25–32 WSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesORST 28–28 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 32–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORST 35–21 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORST 39–18 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 7–42 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 11–39 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesORST 14–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORST 18–32 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 21–28 WSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORST 25–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORST 28–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORST 32–18 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORST 35–14 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 4–39 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 7–35 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORST 11–32 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 14–28 WSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORST 18–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORST 21–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORST 25–18 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 28–14 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORST 32–11 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 0–35 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 4–32 WSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 7–28 WSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORST 11–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORST 14–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 18–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORST 21–14 WSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesORST 25–11 WSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORST 28–7 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalWSU +35WSU +21WSU +7ORST +7ORST +21margin →