AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 7:30 PM
#129Away
Colorado State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
23p
#92Home
Utah State
0-0 · AVR 42.3
34p
CSU 23%77% USU
Spread
USU -10.9
Total
57
Moneyline
CSU+337USU-337
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CSU advantageevenUSU advantage →
CSU throw
USU +23
CSU run
CSU backs #80
USU +16
USU throw
USU protection #88
USU +39
USU run
USU +33

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
over the middle
Juice Vereen
vs
Bryson Taylor
TE · CSU
FS · USU
73.8
62.4
CSU +11
when USU runs
Javen Jacobs
vs
Paul Tangelo
RB · USU
MLB · CSU
71.1
59.0
USU +12
when CSU throws
Tay Lanier
vs
Chika Ebunoha
X · CSU
CB1 · USU
52.7
71.6
USU +19
when CSU runs
Mel Brown
vs
John Miller
RB · CSU
MLB · USU
55.6
66.6
USU +11
when USU throws
Kahanu Davis
vs
Lemondre Joe
X · USU
CB1 · CSU
53.2
56.5
CSU +3
off the edge· hunting Barnes
Elia Migao
vs
Gabe Jones
LT · USU
EDGE · CSU
41.1
62.7
CSU +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Colorado State
TEJuice Vereen
73.84/287
LBPaul Tangelo
59.0310/878
DBLemondre Joe
56.5574/1427
RBMel Brown
55.6161/514
WRTay Lanier
52.7240/777
DBJahari Rogers
51.6714/1427
Utah State
QBBryson Barnes
71.737/308
SChika Ebunoha
71.6199/1427
RBJaven Jacobs
71.147/514
LBJohn Miller
66.6192/878
SIke Larsen
66.6317/1427
LBBronson Olevao Jr.
65.1210/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Colorado State
opponent
Utah State
away-13.0
Washington State#85
+0.4home
away-12.9
Fresno State#87
+0.5home
away-17.1
Texas State#59
-8.7away
home+1.8
Oregon State#122
+5.2away
home-11.8
San Diego State#64
-8.4away
home-12.4
Boise State#60
-9.0away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSU +10.995% interval: -13 to 34.880% interval: -6.5 to 28.3-6+28CSU wins 23%USU wins 77%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USU 35–21 CSUUSU 32–46 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 35–42 CSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSU 39–39 CSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSU 42–35 CSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSU 46–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSU 49–28 CSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSU 53–25 CSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSU 56–21 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSU 60–18 CSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSU 28–42 CSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 32–39 CSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSU 35–35 CSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSU 39–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSU 42–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSU 46–25 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSU 49–21 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSU 53–18 CSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 56–14 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 25–39 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 28–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSU 32–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSU 35–28 CSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSU 39–25 CSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSU 42–21 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSU 46–18 CSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSU 49–14 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 53–11 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 21–35 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 25–32 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSU 28–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSU 32–25 CSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSU 35–21 CSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSU 39–18 CSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSU 42–14 CSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSU 46–11 CSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSU 49–7 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 18–32 CSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 21–28 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSU 25–25 CSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSU 28–21 CSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSU 32–18 CSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSU 35–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSU 39–11 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSU 42–7 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 46–4 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 14–28 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSU 18–25 CSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSU 21–21 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSU 25–18 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSU 28–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSU 32–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSU 35–7 CSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSU 39–4 CSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 42–0 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 11–25 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 14–21 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSU 18–18 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSU 21–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSU 25–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSU 28–7 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSU 32–4 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSU 35–0 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCSU +14PKUSU +14USU +28USU +42margin →