AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sun Nov 15 · 3:30 AM
#129Away
Colorado State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
20p
#85Home
Washington State
0-0 · AVR 45.3
33p
CSU 19%81% WSU
Spread
WSU -13.0
Total
53
Moneyline
CSU+433WSU-433
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CSU advantageevenWSU advantage →
CSU throw
WSU +20
CSU run
CSU backs #80
WSU +23
WSU throw
even
WSU run
WSU backs #73
WSU +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
over the middle
Juice Vereen
vs
Kayo Patu
TE · CSU
FS · WSU
73.8
52.6
CSU +21
when CSU runs
Mel Brown
vs
DJ Warner
RB · CSU
MLB · WSU
55.6
69.6
WSU +14
when WSU runs
Kirby Vorhees
vs
Paul Tangelo
RB · WSU
MLB · CSU
63.2
59.0
WSU +4
when CSU throws
Tay Lanier
vs
Jack Bal
X · CSU
CB1 · WSU
52.7
62.4
WSU +10
when WSU throws
Tony Freeman
vs
Lemondre Joe
X · WSU
CB1 · CSU
50.2
56.5
CSU +6
off the edge· hunting Curry
Alex Foster
vs
Paul Hutson III
LT · CSU
EDGE · WSU
17.7
84.5
WSU +67

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Colorado State
TEJuice Vereen
73.84/287
LBPaul Tangelo
59.0310/878
DBLemondre Joe
56.5574/1427
RBMel Brown
55.6161/514
WRTay Lanier
52.7240/777
DBJahari Rogers
51.6714/1427
Washington State
LBDJ Warner
69.6153/878
RBKirby Vorhees
63.283/514
SJack Bal
62.4420/1427
CBJalil Tucker
54.9627/1427
CBJamarey Smith
53.0678/1427
WRTony Freeman
50.2307/777

also out — T. Leckner (TE), Hudson Cedarland (TE), J. Dugger (QB)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Colorado State
opponent
Washington State
away-12.9
Fresno State#87
+2.6home
away-17.1
Texas State#59
-6.6away
away-10.9
Utah State#92
-0.4away
home-12.4
Boise State#60
-1.9home
home-11.8
San Diego State#64
-6.3away
home+1.8
Oregon State#122
+7.3away

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWSU +13.095% interval: -10.9 to 36.980% interval: -4.4 to 30.4-4+30CSU wins 19%WSU wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WSU 35–21 CSUWSU 32–46 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWSU 35–42 CSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWSU 39–39 CSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWSU 42–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWSU 46–32 CSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWSU 49–28 CSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWSU 53–25 CSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWSU 56–21 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 60–18 CSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWSU 28–42 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWSU 32–39 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWSU 35–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWSU 39–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 42–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWSU 46–25 CSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWSU 49–21 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWSU 53–18 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWSU 56–14 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 25–39 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 28–35 CSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWSU 32–32 CSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWSU 35–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWSU 39–25 CSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWSU 42–21 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWSU 46–18 CSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 49–14 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWSU 53–11 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 21–35 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 25–32 CSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWSU 28–28 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 32–25 CSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWSU 35–21 CSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWSU 39–18 CSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWSU 42–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWSU 46–11 CSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWSU 49–7 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWSU 18–32 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 21–28 CSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWSU 25–25 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 28–21 CSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWSU 32–18 CSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWSU 35–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWSU 39–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWSU 42–7 CSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWSU 46–4 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWSU 14–28 CSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 18–25 CSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWSU 21–21 CSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWSU 25–18 CSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWSU 28–14 CSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWSU 32–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWSU 35–7 CSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 39–4 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWSU 42–0 CSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 11–25 CSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWSU 14–21 CSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWSU 18–18 CSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWSU 21–14 CSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 25–11 CSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWSU 28–7 CSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWSU 32–4 CSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWSU 35–0 CSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCSU +14PKWSU +14WSU +28WSU +42margin →