AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sun Nov 22 · 3:30 AM
#92Away
Utah State
0-0 · AVR 42.3
32p
#122Home
Oregon State
0-0 · AVR 30.8
27p
USU 64%36% ORST
Spread
USU -5.2
Total
59
Moneyline
USU-178ORST+178
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USU advantageevenORST advantage →
USU throw
USU protection #88
USU +16
USU run
even
ORST throw
ORST protection #57
USU +22
ORST run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USU runs
Javen Jacobs
vs
Aiden Sullivan
RB · USU
MLB · ORST
71.1
70.3
dead even
when USU throws
Kahanu Davis
vs
Sailasa Vadrawale III
X · USU
CB1 · ORST
53.2
72.4
ORST +19
when ORST runs
AJ Newberry
vs
John Miller
RB · ORST
MLB · USU
53.9
66.6
USU +13
when ORST throws
Karson Boschma
vs
Chika Ebunoha
X · ORST
CB1 · USU
42.5
71.6
USU +29
off the edge· hunting Murphy
Nathan Elu
vs
Tyree Morris
LT · ORST
EDGE · USU
48.3
61.9
USU +14
off the edge· hunting Barnes
Elia Migao
vs
Tygee Hill
LT · USU
EDGE · ORST
41.1
65.5
ORST +24

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah State
QBBryson Barnes
71.737/308
SChika Ebunoha
71.6199/1427
RBJaven Jacobs
71.147/514
LBJohn Miller
66.6192/878
SIke Larsen
66.6317/1427
LBBronson Olevao Jr.
65.1210/878
Oregon State
DBSailasa Vadrawale III
72.4183/1427
LBAiden Sullivan
70.3141/878
LBTakari Hickle
67.3189/878
DBZephen Walker
57.5549/1427
DBHarlem Howard
56.2585/1427
RBAJ Newberry
53.9182/514

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Utah State
opponent
Oregon State
home+10.9
Colorado State#129
-1.8away
home+0.5
Fresno State#87
-12.2away
away-9.0
Boise State#60
-16.8away
home+0.4
Washington State#85
-7.3home
away-8.7
Texas State#59
-11.4home
away-8.4
San Diego State#64
-11.1home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSU +5.295% interval: -29.1 to 18.780% interval: -22.6 to 12.2-23+12USU wins 64%ORST wins 36%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USU 32–25 ORSTORST 21–56 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 25–53 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 28–49 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 32–46 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesORST 35–42 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 39–39 USU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORST 42–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORST 46–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORST 49–28 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 18–53 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 21–49 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 25–46 USU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORST 28–42 USU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesORST 32–39 USU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesORST 35–35 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORST 39–32 USU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORST 42–28 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORST 46–25 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORST 14–49 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 18–46 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORST 21–42 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 25–39 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORST 28–35 USU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORST 32–32 USU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesORST 35–28 USU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesORST 39–25 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 42–21 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 11–46 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 14–42 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesORST 18–39 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 21–35 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesORST 25–32 USU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesORST 28–28 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesORST 32–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 35–21 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 39–18 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesORST 7–42 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesORST 11–39 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesORST 14–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesORST 18–32 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORST 21–28 USU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesORST 25–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesORST 28–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesORST 32–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesORST 35–14 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORST 4–39 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesORST 7–35 USU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORST 11–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 14–28 USU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesORST 18–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesORST 21–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesORST 25–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 28–14 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORST 32–11 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesORST 0–35 USU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesORST 4–32 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesORST 7–28 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesORST 11–25 USU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesORST 14–21 USU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesORST 18–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesORST 21–14 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesORST 25–11 USU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesORST 28–7 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSU +35USU +21USU +7ORST +7ORST +21margin →