AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 1:00 AM
#85Away
Washington State
0-0 · AVR 45.3
28p
#92Home
Utah State
0-0 · AVR 42.3
29p
WSU 49%51% USU
Spread
USU -0.4
Total
57
Moneyline
WSU+106USU-106
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WSU advantageevenUSU advantage →
WSU throw
USU +30
WSU run
WSU backs #73
USU +12
USU throw
USU protection #88
USU +12
USU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USU runs
Javen Jacobs
vs
DJ Warner
RB · USU
MLB · WSU
71.1
69.6
dead even
when WSU runs
Kirby Vorhees
vs
John Miller
RB · WSU
MLB · USU
63.2
66.6
USU +3
off the edge· hunting Barnes
Elia Migao
vs
Paul Hutson III
LT · USU
EDGE · WSU
41.1
84.5
WSU +43
when WSU throws
Tony Freeman
vs
Chika Ebunoha
X · WSU
CB1 · USU
50.2
71.6
USU +21
when USU throws
Kahanu Davis
vs
Jack Bal
X · USU
CB1 · WSU
53.2
62.4
WSU +9
over the middle
Trey Leckner
vs
Bryson Taylor
TE · WSU
FS · USU
47.8
62.4
USU +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Washington State
LBDJ Warner
69.6153/878
RBKirby Vorhees
63.283/514
SJack Bal
62.4420/1427
CBJalil Tucker
54.9627/1427
CBJamarey Smith
53.0678/1427
WRTony Freeman
50.2307/777

also out — T. Leckner (TE), Hudson Cedarland (TE), J. Dugger (QB)

Utah State
QBBryson Barnes
71.737/308
SChika Ebunoha
71.6199/1427
RBJaven Jacobs
71.147/514
LBJohn Miller
66.6192/878
SIke Larsen
66.6317/1427
LBBronson Olevao Jr.
65.1210/878

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Washington State
opponent
Utah State
away-38.3
Washington#15
-26.5away
home-1.9
Boise State#60
-9.0away
away-6.3
San Diego State#64
-8.4away
home+2.6
Fresno State#87
+0.5home
away+7.3
Oregon State#122
+5.2away
home+13.0
Colorado State#129
+10.9home
away-6.6
Texas State#59
-8.7away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSU +0.495% interval: -23.5 to 24.380% interval: -17 to 17.8-17+18WSU wins 49%USU wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USU 28–28 WSUUSU 25–53 WSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 28–49 WSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 32–46 WSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSU 35–42 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSU 39–39 WSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSU 42–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSU 46–32 WSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSU 49–28 WSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 53–25 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSU 21–49 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSU 25–46 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSU 28–42 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSU 32–39 WSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSU 35–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSU 39–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSU 42–28 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSU 46–25 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSU 49–21 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 18–46 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 21–42 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSU 25–39 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSU 28–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSU 32–32 WSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSU 35–28 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSU 39–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSU 42–21 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSU 46–18 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 14–42 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 18–39 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSU 21–35 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSU 25–32 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSU 28–28 WSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSU 32–25 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSU 35–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSU 39–18 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSU 42–14 WSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSU 11–39 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 14–35 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSU 18–32 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSU 21–28 WSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSU 25–25 WSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSU 28–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSU 32–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSU 35–14 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSU 39–11 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 7–35 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSU 11–32 WSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSU 14–28 WSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSU 18–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSU 21–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSU 25–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSU 28–14 WSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSU 32–11 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSU 35–7 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSU 4–32 WSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSU 7–28 WSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSU 11–25 WSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSU 14–21 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSU 18–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSU 21–14 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSU 25–11 WSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSU 28–7 WSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSU 32–4 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalWSU +28WSU +14PKUSU +14USU +28margin →