CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
LAF 9.4%90.6% CONN
Projected margin
CONN by 21.1
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
CONN 1 to CONN 42
Win probability
CONN 90.6%
FinalLAF 7 · CONN 56model had +21.1, off by 27.9

Current team profiles

Lafayette
UConn

When Lafayette has the ball

Passing

No comparison
LAF offense
—
CONN defense
#84
EPA comparison
—
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
LAF offense
—
CONN defense
#41
EPA comparison
—
-0.01
#41
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
LAF offense
#107
CONN defense
#92
Success rates
40%
#107
42%
#92
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#88
0.08
#76
EPA / play
0.21
#50
1.20
#63
Explosiveness
—
16%
#63
Havoc

When UConn has the ball

Passing

No comparison
LAF defense
—
CONN offense
#38
EPA comparison
—
0.33
#38
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
LAF defense
—
CONN offense
#28
EPA comparison
—
0.21
#28
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
LAF defense
#89
CONN offense
#52
Success rates
46%
#89
45%
#52
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#38
0.22
#38
EPA / play
0.21
#74
1.40
#7
Explosiveness
—
13%
#39
Havoc

Current key players

Lafayette
LBCallahan Blair
24 tkl · 5.5 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.6
Coverage
78.3
Pressures
24
Pass-rush snaps
124
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
85.712/1054
WRMason Kuehner
27 rec · 410 yds · 3 TD
73.687/1229
TEPeter Noonan
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.5
Run blocking
82.5
Penalties
0
72.925/526
DBDarrick LeBeouf
30 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.8
Coverage
74.7
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
89
Passer rating allowed
70.2
Missed tackles
2
72.9234/1765
KGavin Zeiman
0 punts · 0.0 avg
72.464/416
WRBenjamin Bussiere
2 rec · 14 yds · 0 TD
72.3104/1229
UConn
QBKalieb Osborne
1164 yds · 10 TD · 2 INT
91.012/729
LBHayden Pegg
34 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.7
Coverage
83.6
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
15
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
87.024/1796
WRRaymond Liggins III
5 rec · 72 yds · 1 TD
81.345/2069
RBCyncir Bowers
349 yds · 5 TD · 7.4 YPC
80.180/1044
WRKamren Flowers
1 rec · 30 yds · 0 TD
77.778/2069
TEMatt Ragan
5 rec · 56 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
30.8
Run blocking
71.7
Penalties
2
74.152/1017
Availability reports · 2
  • J. Brown · WRout · 2026-10-05

    Brown is bothered by a concussion protocol, and he is without a definitive timetable for return.

  • Jake Merklinger · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Merklinger is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Minutemen on Friday , October 23rd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

LAF
CONN
vs
Offense
64.8
#93 of 125
QB
91.0
#12 of 138
66.2
#107 of 126
RB
78.8
#42 of 138
70.6
#49 of 126
WR
77.7
#18 of 138
72.9
#24 of 124
TE
74.1
#42 of 138
70.9
#18 of 125
OL
71.7
#40 of 138
Defense
66.8
#103 of 126
DL
71.3
#93 of 138
70.1
#78 of 126
LB
73.2
#78 of 138
68.2
#104 of 126
DB
64.0
#136 of 138
Common opponents