AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:00 PM
#72Away
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
30p
#93Home
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
27p
CONN 58%42% USM
Spread
CONN -2.8
Total
58
Moneyline
CONN-138USM+138
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CONN advantageevenUSM advantage →
CONN throw
USM +8
CONN run
CONN +19
USM throw
CONN coverage #115CONN pass rush #12
CONN +31
USM run
CONN linebackers #69
CONN +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · CONN
CB1 · USM
57.0
95.9
USM +39
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Jameer Lewis
LT · CONN
EDGE · USM
77.4
72.6
CONN +5
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · USM
MLB · CONN
52.7
93.3
CONN +41
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Melvin Spriggs
RB · CONN
MLB · USM
62.7
70.3
USM +8
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
Jayden Davis
X · USM
CB1 · CONN
52.8
71.1
CONN +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777
Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UConn
opponent
Southern Miss
home+4.2
Old Dominion#76
-6.2away
home-0.8
James Madison#55
-6.1home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCONN +2.895% interval: -26.7 to 21.180% interval: -20.2 to 14.5-20+15CONN wins 58%USM wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USM 28–28 CONNUSM 25–53 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 28–49 CONN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSM 32–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSM 35–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSM 39–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSM 42–35 CONN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSM 46–32 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 49–28 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 53–25 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 21–49 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 25–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSM 28–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 32–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSM 35–35 CONN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSM 39–32 CONN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSM 42–28 CONN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSM 46–25 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 49–21 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 18–46 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 21–42 CONN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSM 25–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSM 28–35 CONN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSM 32–32 CONN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSM 35–28 CONN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSM 39–25 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSM 42–21 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 46–18 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 14–42 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 18–39 CONN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSM 21–35 CONN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSM 25–32 CONN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSM 28–28 CONN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSM 32–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUSM 35–21 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSM 39–18 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 42–14 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 11–39 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 14–35 CONN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSM 18–32 CONN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSM 21–28 CONN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSM 25–25 CONN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSM 28–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSM 32–18 CONN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSM 35–14 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 39–11 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 7–35 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 11–32 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 14–28 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 18–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSM 21–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSM 25–18 CONN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 28–14 CONN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSM 32–11 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 35–7 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 4–32 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 7–28 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 11–25 CONN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSM 14–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 18–18 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 21–14 CONN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSM 25–11 CONN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSM 28–7 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 32–4 CONN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalCONN +28CONN +14PKUSM +14USM +28margin →