CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET
#108Away
UConn
1-1 · AVR 53.6
48
Final
#128Home
Southern Miss
1-1 · AVR 49.7
20
Forecast win probability
CONN 49.2%50.8% USM
Projected margin
USM by 0.5
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
CONN 19 to USM 21
Win probability
USM 50.8%
FinalCONN 48 · USM 20model had +0.5, off by 28.5

Current team profiles

UConn
Southern Miss

When UConn has the ball

Passing

CONN offense
Higher-ranked profile
CONN offense
#38
USM defense
#103
EPA comparison
0.33
#38
0.27
#103
Pass EPA

Rushing

CONN offense
Higher-ranked profile
CONN offense
#28
USM defense
#134
EPA comparison
0.21
#28
0.26
#134
Rush EPA

Drive success

CONN offense
Higher-ranked profile
CONN offense
#52
USM defense
#110
Success rates
45%
#52
45%
#110
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#38
0.20
#122
EPA / play
1.40
#7
1.24
#78
Explosiveness
13%
#39
12%
#129
Havoc

When Southern Miss has the ball

Passing

CONN defense
Higher-ranked profile
CONN defense
#84
USM offense
#111
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.08
#111
Pass EPA

Rushing

USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
CONN defense
#41
USM offense
#30
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.20
#30
Rush EPA

Drive success

USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
CONN defense
#92
USM offense
#62
Success rates
42%
#92
44%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#76
0.08
#95
EPA / play
1.20
#63
1.19
#94
Explosiveness
16%
#63
15%
#73
Havoc

Current key players

UConn
QBKalieb Osborne
1164 yds · 10 TD · 2 INT
91.012/729
LBHayden Pegg
34 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.7
Coverage
83.6
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
15
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
87.024/1796
WRRaymond Liggins III
5 rec · 72 yds · 1 TD
81.345/2069
RBCyncir Bowers
349 yds · 5 TD · 7.4 YPC
80.180/1044
WRKamren Flowers
1 rec · 30 yds · 0 TD
77.778/2069
TEMatt Ragan
5 rec · 56 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
30.8
Run blocking
71.7
Penalties
2
74.152/1017
Availability reports · 2
  • J. Brown · WRout · 2026-10-05

    Brown is bothered by a concussion protocol, and he is without a definitive timetable for return.

  • Jake Merklinger · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Merklinger is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Minutemen on Friday , October 23rd.

Southern Miss
QBEthan Hampton
419 yds · 2 TD · 4 INT
69.3163/729
LBMelvin Spriggs
10 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.4
Coverage
62.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
86.231/1796
WRMJ Johnson
9 rec · 120 yds · 0 TD
83.631/2069
DBKobi Albert
13 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
52
Passer rating allowed
16.7
Missed tackles
0
83.334/2969
DBJonah Martinez
3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
89.8
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
25
Passer rating allowed
13.5
Missed tackles
2
83.136/2969
DBLaquan Robinson
20 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
77.5
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
2
80.160/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Ethan Hampton · QBout · 2026-09-25

    Hampton is nursing with a hand injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established.

  • Grant Page · WRout · 2026-09-22

    Page is sidelined due to a dislocated elbow, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Jaylen Himes · WRout · 2026-09-25

    Himes is out of commission due to a foot injury, and he will miss an extended period.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

CONN
USM
vs
Offense
91.0
#12 of 138
QB
69.3
#103 of 138
78.8
#42 of 138
RB
71.1
#110 of 138
77.7
#18 of 138
WR
74.2
#40 of 138
74.1
#42 of 138
TE
70.8
#58 of 138
71.7
#40 of 138
OL
72.9
#28 of 138
Defense
71.3
#93 of 138
DL
70.4
#100 of 138
73.2
#78 of 138
LB
75.7
#55 of 138
64.0
#136 of 138
DB
76.2
#23 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UConn
opponent
Southern Miss
H+6.7
ODU#130
-3.7A
H-9.8
JMU#51
-14.9H