AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#72Away
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
32p
#113Home
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
26p
CONN 65%35% TEM
Spread
CONN -5.9
Total
58
Moneyline
CONN-188TEM+188
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CONN advantageevenTEM advantage →
CONN throw
CONN +38
CONN run
CONN +55
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
CONN +17
TEM run
CONN linebackers #69
CONN +52

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TEM runs
Hunter Smith
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · TEM
MLB · CONN
55.8
93.3
CONN +37
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Jayden Davis
X · TEM
CB1 · CONN
64.8
71.1
CONN +6
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
Adrian Laing
X · CONN
CB1 · TEM
57.0
72.1
TEM +15
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Quante Gillians
LT · CONN
EDGE · TEM
77.4
50.2
CONN +27
off the edge· hunting Smolik
Eric King
vs
Esean Carter
LT · TEM
EDGE · CONN
37.2
87.3
CONN +50
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Curly Ordonez
RB · CONN
MLB · TEM
62.7
61.6
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777
Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCONN +5.995% interval: -29.8 to 1880% interval: -23.3 to 11.4-23+11CONN wins 65%TEM wins 35%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CONN 32–25 TEMTEM 21–56 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 25–53 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 28–49 CONN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 32–46 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 35–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEM 39–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 42–35 CONN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTEM 46–32 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 49–28 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 18–53 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 21–49 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 25–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 28–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTEM 32–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 35–35 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 39–32 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 42–28 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 46–25 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 14–49 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 18–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 21–42 CONN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEM 25–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEM 28–35 CONN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEM 32–32 CONN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEM 35–28 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 39–25 CONN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEM 42–21 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 11–46 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 14–42 CONN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 18–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 21–35 CONN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 25–32 CONN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTEM 28–28 CONN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEM 32–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEM 35–21 CONN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEM 39–18 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 7–42 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 11–39 CONN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 14–35 CONN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 18–32 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 21–28 CONN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEM 25–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTEM 28–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 32–18 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 35–14 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 4–39 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 7–35 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 11–32 CONN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 14–28 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 18–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEM 21–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEM 25–18 CONN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 28–14 CONN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 32–11 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 0–35 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 4–32 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 7–28 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 11–25 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 14–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 18–18 CONN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 21–14 CONN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 25–11 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 28–7 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalCONN +35CONN +21CONN +7TEM +7TEM +21margin →