AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Fri Oct 23 · 10:00 PM
#138Away
Massachusetts
0-0 · AVR 11.0
12p
#72Home
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
43p
MASS 2%98% CONN
Spread
CONN -31.2
Total
55
Moneyline
MASS—CONN—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MASS advantageevenCONN advantage →
MASS throw
CONN coverage #115CONN pass rush #12
CONN +48
MASS run
CONN linebackers #69
CONN +72
CONN throw
CONN +41
CONN run
CONN +56

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MASS runs
Justin Williams-Thomas
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · MASS
MLB · CONN
50.1
93.3
CONN +43
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Andrew Depaepe
LT · CONN
EDGE · MASS
77.4
59.9
CONN +18
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Timmy Hinspeter
RB · CONN
MLB · MASS
62.7
56.4
CONN +6
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
DD Snyder
X · CONN
CB1 · MASS
57.0
61.2
MASS +4
when MASS throws
Elijah Pedro
vs
Jayden Davis
X · MASS
CB1 · CONN
36.2
71.1
CONN +35
over the middle
Max Dowling
vs
Jayden Price
TE · MASS
FS · CONN
38.7
48.0
CONN +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Massachusetts
SDD Snyder
61.2452/1427
CBIsaiah Reed
59.2503/1427
LBTimmy Hinspeter
56.4366/878
LBTyler Martin
53.5415/878
RBJustin Williams-Thomas
50.1283/514
QBWilliam Watson III
47.3192/308
UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777

Projected margin

80% between 14 and 49
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCONN +31.295% interval: 7.3 to 55.180% interval: 13.8 to 48.6+14+49MASS wins 2%CONN wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CONN 42–14 MASSCONN 39–39 MASS neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCONN 42–35 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 46–32 MASS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 49–28 MASS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCONN 53–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 56–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 60–18 MASS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 63–14 MASS neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 67–11 MASS neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 35–35 MASS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 39–32 MASS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 42–28 MASS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 46–25 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCONN 49–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCONN 53–18 MASS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCONN 56–14 MASS neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 60–11 MASS neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCONN 63–7 MASS neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 32–32 MASS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 35–28 MASS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 39–25 MASS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 42–21 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 46–18 MASS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCONN 49–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCONN 53–11 MASS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 56–7 MASS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 60–4 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 28–28 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 32–25 MASS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 35–21 MASS neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCONN 39–18 MASS neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCONN 42–14 MASS neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesCONN 46–11 MASS neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesCONN 49–7 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 53–4 MASS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 56–0 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 25–25 MASS neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 28–21 MASS neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 32–18 MASS neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 35–14 MASS neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 39–11 MASS neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCONN 42–7 MASS neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCONN 46–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCONN 49–0 MASS neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CONN 21–21 MASS neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 25–18 MASS neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 28–14 MASS neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 32–11 MASS neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCONN 35–7 MASS neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCONN 39–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCONN 42–0 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)CONN 18–18 MASS neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesCONN 21–14 MASS neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 25–11 MASS neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCONN 28–7 MASS neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 32–4 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCONN 35–0 MASS neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKCONN +14CONN +28CONN +42CONN +56margin →