AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 8:30 PM
#76Away
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
27p
#72Home
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
32p
ODU 39%61% CONN
Spread
CONN -4.2
Total
59
Moneyline
ODU+158CONN-158
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ODU advantageevenCONN advantage →
ODU throw
CONN coverage #115CONN pass rush #12
CONN +16
ODU run
CONN linebackers #69
CONN +15
CONN throw
ODU +22
CONN run
CONN +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · ODU
MLB · CONN
64.7
93.3
CONN +29
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Javen Gibson
LT · CONN
EDGE · ODU
77.4
73.0
CONN +4
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
Zion Frink
X · CONN
CB1 · ODU
57.0
89.5
ODU +32
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Jackson Forrest
RB · CONN
MLB · ODU
62.7
79.2
ODU +16
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
Jayden Davis
X · ODU
CB1 · CONN
53.6
71.1
CONN +17
over the middle
Leon Haughton Jr.
vs
Jayden Price
TE · ODU
FS · CONN
39.3
48.0
CONN +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777
UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Old Dominion
opponent
UConn
home+6.2
Southern Miss#93
+2.8away
home-2.5
James Madison#55
-0.8home

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCONN +4.295% interval: -19.7 to 28.180% interval: -13.2 to 21.6-13+22ODU wins 39%CONN wins 61%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CONN 32–25 ODUCONN 28–49 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 32–46 ODU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCONN 35–42 ODU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCONN 39–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCONN 42–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCONN 46–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCONN 49–28 ODU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCONN 53–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 56–21 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 25–46 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 28–42 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCONN 32–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCONN 35–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCONN 39–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCONN 42–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCONN 46–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 49–21 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 53–18 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 21–42 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 25–39 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 28–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 32–32 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCONN 35–28 ODU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCONN 39–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 42–21 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 46–18 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 49–14 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 18–39 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 21–35 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 25–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 28–28 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCONN 32–25 ODU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCONN 35–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCONN 39–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCONN 42–14 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 46–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 14–35 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 18–32 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCONN 21–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCONN 25–25 ODU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCONN 28–21 ODU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCONN 32–18 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 35–14 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 39–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCONN 42–7 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 11–32 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCONN 14–28 ODU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCONN 18–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 21–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 25–18 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCONN 28–14 ODU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCONN 32–11 ODU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCONN 35–7 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCONN 39–4 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCONN 7–28 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCONN 11–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCONN 14–21 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCONN 18–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 21–14 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCONN 25–11 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCONN 28–7 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCONN 32–4 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCONN 35–0 ODU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalODU +21ODU +7CONN +7CONN +21CONN +35margin →