AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#72Away
UConn
0-0 · AVR 48.0
29p
#91Home
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
26p
CONN 58%42% M-OH
Spread
CONN -2.8
Total
56
Moneyline
CONN-136M-OH+136
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CONN advantageevenM-OH advantage →
CONN throw
M-OH +23
CONN run
M-OH +7
M-OH throw
CONN coverage #115CONN pass rush #12
CONN +30
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143CONN linebackers #69
CONN +47

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Osborne
Ty Chan
vs
Bai Jobe
LT · CONN
EDGE · M-OH
77.4
71.1
CONN +6
when CONN throws
Ryder Treadway
vs
Ben Minich
X · CONN
CB1 · M-OH
57.0
88.7
M-OH +32
when CONN runs
Kenji Christian
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · CONN
MLB · M-OH
62.7
82.1
M-OH +19
when M-OH runs
D'Shawntae Jones
vs
K'Von Sherman
RB · M-OH
MLB · CONN
48.3
93.3
CONN +45
off the edge· hunting Gotkowski
Evan Malcore
vs
Esean Carter
LT · M-OH
EDGE · CONN
54.0
87.3
CONN +33
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
Jayden Davis
X · M-OH
CB1 · CONN
55.3
71.1
CONN +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UConn
LBK'Von Sherman
93.35/878
DBJayden Davis
71.1209/1427
RBKenji Christian
62.788/514
WRRyder Treadway
57.0143/777
QBKalieb Osborne
56.585/308
WRShamar Porter
55.1174/777
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCONN +2.895% interval: -26.7 to 21.180% interval: -20.2 to 14.6-20+15CONN wins 58%M-OH wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ M-OH 28–28 CONNM-OH 25–53 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 28–49 CONN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 32–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesM-OH 35–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesM-OH 39–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesM-OH 42–35 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 46–32 CONN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesM-OH 49–28 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 53–25 CONN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesM-OH 21–49 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 25–46 CONN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 28–42 CONN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesM-OH 32–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesM-OH 35–35 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesM-OH 39–32 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 42–28 CONN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesM-OH 46–25 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesM-OH 49–21 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 18–46 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesM-OH 21–42 CONN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 25–39 CONN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesM-OH 28–35 CONN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 32–32 CONN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 35–28 CONN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesM-OH 39–25 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 42–21 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesM-OH 46–18 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 14–42 CONN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesM-OH 18–39 CONN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesM-OH 21–35 CONN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesM-OH 25–32 CONN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesM-OH 28–28 CONN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesM-OH 32–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesM-OH 35–21 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 39–18 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesM-OH 42–14 CONN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesM-OH 11–39 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesM-OH 14–35 CONN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 18–32 CONN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesM-OH 21–28 CONN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesM-OH 25–25 CONN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesM-OH 28–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesM-OH 32–18 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 35–14 CONN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesM-OH 39–11 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 7–35 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 11–32 CONN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesM-OH 14–28 CONN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesM-OH 18–25 CONN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesM-OH 21–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesM-OH 25–18 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 28–14 CONN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesM-OH 32–11 CONN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesM-OH 35–7 CONN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesM-OH 4–32 CONN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesM-OH 7–28 CONN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesM-OH 11–25 CONN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesM-OH 14–21 CONN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesM-OH 18–18 CONN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesM-OH 21–14 CONN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesM-OH 25–11 CONN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesM-OH 28–7 CONN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesM-OH 32–4 CONN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalCONN +28CONN +14PKM-OH +14M-OH +28margin →