CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:00 PM ET
#114Away
Tulsa
1-0 · AVR 51.7
23
Final
#147Home
Sam Houston
0-1 · AVR 46.7
17
Forecast win probability
TLSA 68.4%31.6% SHSU
Projected margin
TLSA by 6.7
Projected total
51
80% outcome range
TLSA 26 to SHSU 11
Win probability
TLSA 68.4%
FinalTLSA 23 · SHSU 17model had -6.7, off by 0.7

Current team profiles

Tulsa
Sam Houston

When Tulsa has the ball

Passing

SHSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA offense
#108
SHSU defense
#26
EPA comparison
0.09
#108
0.01
#26
Pass EPA

Rushing

TLSA offense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA offense
#21
SHSU defense
#134
EPA comparison
0.23
#21
0.26
#134
Rush EPA

Drive success

SHSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA offense
#117
SHSU defense
#95
Success rates
39%
#117
43%
#95
Success rate
More metrics
0.14
#74
0.13
#98
EPA / play
1.22
#78
1.22
#70
Explosiveness
15%
#69
20%
#18
Havoc

When Sam Houston has the ball

Passing

TLSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA defense
#82
SHSU offense
#98
EPA comparison
0.18
#82
0.12
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

TLSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA defense
#41
SHSU offense
#110
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.00
#110
Rush EPA

Drive success

TLSA defense
Higher-ranked profile
TLSA defense
#74
SHSU offense
#96
Success rates
41%
#74
41%
#96
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#54
0.05
#107
EPA / play
1.14
#29
1.28
#41
Explosiveness
13%
#116
18%
#122
Havoc

Current key players

Tulsa
QBDexter Williams II
340 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
64.2222/729
RBSeth Davis
90 yds · 1 TD · 10.0 YPC
88.714/1044
TEJackson Shockley
1 rec · 22 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
48.5
Run blocking
65.5
Penalties
0
87.18/1017
DBDevin Robinson
19 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
76.0
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
62
Passer rating allowed
92.5
Missed tackles
3
79.077/2969
LBDax Collins
39 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 2.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
84.8
Coverage
58.3
Pressures
12
Pass-rush snaps
24
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
76.7146/1796
CBCaldra Williford
16 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.4
Coverage
74.2
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
65
Passer rating allowed
158.3
Missed tackles
2
75.4178/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Jimmy Calloway · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Calloway is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against the Owls on Saturday, Octob

  • Grayson Tempest · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tempest is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against the Owls on Saturday, Octobe

Sam Houston
QBBrett Holloway
64 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
90.619/729
SCameron Franklin
7 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
77.3
Coverage
85.4
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
29.2
Missed tackles
1
87.416/2969
LBCa'lub Holloway
3 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
85.235/1796
RBAh'Marion Gaines-Smith
21 yds · 0 TD · 7.0 YPC
77.0136/1044
LBCole Worthington
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
74.2210/1796
SRailyn Adams
18 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.4
Coverage
71.2
Targets allowed
8
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
26
Passer rating allowed
7.3
Missed tackles
5
73.9235/2969
Availability reports · 2
  • Brock Kuhl · TEout · 2026-10-08

    Kuhl is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Max Whisner · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Whisner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Hilltoppers on Wednesday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TLSA
SHSU
vs
Offense
64.2
#121 of 138
QB
90.6
#17 of 138
84.4
#13 of 138
RB
75.4
#71 of 138
67.0
#120 of 138
WR
70.0
#80 of 138
87.1
#8 of 138
TE
63.3
#102 of 138
68.5
#64 of 138
OL
65.6
#90 of 138
Defense
73.1
#68 of 138
DL
74.7
#56 of 138
71.4
#93 of 138
LB
76.7
#47 of 138
74.5
#41 of 138
DB
73.4
#52 of 138
Common opponents