AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:00 PM
#110Away
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
31p
#137Home
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
24p
TLSA 69%31% SHSU
Spread
TLSA -7.3
Total
55
Moneyline
TLSA-226SHSU+226
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TLSA advantageevenSHSU advantage →
TLSA throw
TLSA +28
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
TLSA +26
SHSU throw
TLSA +44
SHSU run
TLSA +34

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Dylan Frazier
LT · TLSA
EDGE · SHSU
69.1
69.5
dead even
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
Chris Thompson Jr.
RB · SHSU
MLB · TLSA
57.0
78.3
TLSA +21
when TLSA runs
Trequan Jones
vs
Dean Ford
RB · TLSA
MLB · SHSU
69.0
53.9
TLSA +15
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
Elijah Green
X · SHSU
CB1 · TLSA
43.4
72.9
TLSA +30
over the middle
Max Whisner
vs
Korbyn Green
TE · SHSU
FS · TLSA
37.2
61.5
TLSA +24
when TLSA throws
Jimmy Calloway
vs
Tyler Bailey
X · TLSA
CB1 · SHSU
53.4
41.3
TLSA +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878
Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTLSA +7.395% interval: -31.2 to 16.680% interval: -24.7 to 10-25+10TLSA wins 69%SHSU wins 31%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TLSA 32–25 SHSUSHSU 21–56 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 25–53 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 28–49 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSHSU 32–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSHSU 35–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 39–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 42–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSHSU 46–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 49–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 18–53 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 21–49 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 25–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSHSU 28–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSHSU 32–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSHSU 35–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSHSU 39–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSHSU 42–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSHSU 46–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 14–49 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 18–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 21–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 25–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSHSU 28–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSHSU 32–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSHSU 35–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSHSU 39–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSHSU 42–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 11–46 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSHSU 14–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 18–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSHSU 21–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSHSU 25–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSHSU 28–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSHSU 32–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 35–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 39–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 7–42 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 11–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 14–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 18–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSHSU 21–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSHSU 25–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSHSU 28–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 32–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSHSU 35–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 4–39 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 7–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSHSU 11–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSHSU 14–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 18–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSHSU 21–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSHSU 25–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 28–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 32–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 0–35 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 4–32 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 7–28 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSHSU 11–25 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 14–21 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSHSU 18–18 TLSA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 21–14 TLSA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSHSU 25–11 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 28–7 TLSA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalTLSA +35TLSA +21TLSA +7SHSU +7SHSU +21margin →