AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#132Away
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
24p
#121Home
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
34p
ULM 25%75% UAB
Spread
UAB -9.7
Total
58
Moneyline
ULM+295UAB-295
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ULM advantageevenUAB advantage →
ULM throw
UAB +7
ULM run
UAB +9
UAB throw
UAB +26
UAB run
ULM front #130ULM linebackers #19
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
Noah Flemmings
RB · UAB
MLB · ULM
57.9
86.1
ULM +28
when UAB throws
AJ Johnson
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · UAB
CB1 · ULM
49.4
57.9
ULM +8
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · ULM
CB1 · UAB
48.1
56.5
UAB +8
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
Darrell Sweeting
TE · ULM
FS · UAB
61.0
42.1
ULM +19
off the edge· hunting Armenta
Drew Hutchinson
vs
Elijah Hall
LT · ULM
EDGE · UAB
41.3
57.7
UAB +16
off the edge· hunting Burton
Calib Perez
vs
James Smith
LT · UAB
EDGE · ULM
50.0
42.7
UAB +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUAB +9.795% interval: -14.2 to 33.680% interval: -7.7 to 27.1-8+27ULM wins 25%UAB wins 75%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UAB 32–25 ULMUAB 28–49 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 32–46 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 35–42 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUAB 39–39 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUAB 42–35 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 46–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 49–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUAB 53–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUAB 56–21 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 25–46 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 28–42 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 32–39 ULM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 35–35 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 39–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUAB 42–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUAB 46–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUAB 49–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUAB 53–18 ULM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 21–42 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 25–39 ULM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 28–35 ULM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUAB 32–32 ULM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUAB 35–28 ULM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUAB 39–25 ULM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUAB 42–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUAB 46–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 49–14 ULM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 18–39 ULM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUAB 21–35 ULM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 25–32 ULM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUAB 28–28 ULM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUAB 32–25 ULM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUAB 35–21 ULM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUAB 39–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 42–14 ULM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 46–11 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 14–35 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 18–32 ULM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUAB 21–28 ULM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 25–25 ULM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 28–21 ULM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUAB 32–18 ULM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUAB 35–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUAB 39–11 ULM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 42–7 ULM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 11–32 ULM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUAB 14–28 ULM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUAB 18–25 ULM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUAB 21–21 ULM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUAB 25–18 ULM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUAB 28–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUAB 32–11 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUAB 35–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUAB 39–4 ULM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUAB 7–28 ULM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUAB 11–25 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUAB 14–21 ULM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUAB 18–18 ULM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUAB 21–14 ULM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUAB 25–11 ULM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUAB 28–7 ULM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUAB 32–4 ULM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUAB 35–0 ULM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalULM +21ULM +7UAB +7UAB +21UAB +35margin →