AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sun Sep 20
#121Away
UAB
0-0 · AVR 31.9
25p
#99Home
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
34p
UAB 26%74% UL
Spread
UL -9.1
Total
59
Moneyline
UAB+281UL-281
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UAB advantageevenUL advantage →
UAB throw
UL pass rush #152
UAB +20
UAB run
UAB +37
UL throw
UL +16
UL run
UAB +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Guylijah Theodule
X · UL
CB1 · UAB
74.3
56.5
UL +18
when UAB throws
AJ Johnson
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · UAB
CB1 · UL
49.4
71.4
UL +22
when UAB runs
Bam McReynolds
vs
Conor McPherson
RB · UAB
MLB · UL
57.9
54.2
UAB +4
when UL runs
Darrell Smith
vs
Muaaz Byard
RB · UL
MLB · UAB
45.8
64.0
UAB +18
over the middle
Antonio Ferguson
vs
Kerry Wilson
TE · UAB
FS · UL
48.7
57.5
UL +9
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
Elijah Hall
LT · UL
EDGE · UAB
40.5
57.7
UAB +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UAB
LBMuaaz Byard
64.0227/878
QBRyder Burton
58.276/308
RBBam McReynolds
57.9131/514
DBGuylijah Theodule
56.5577/1427
DBKris Wokomah
56.1590/1427
DBJeremiah Jordan
53.8658/1427
Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UAB
opponent
Louisiana
home+9.7
UL Monroe#132
+11.3away
home+9.3
Charlotte#135
+10.9away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUL +9.195% interval: -14.8 to 3380% interval: -8.3 to 26.5-8+27UAB wins 26%UL wins 74%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UL 32–25 UABUL 28–49 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 32–46 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 35–42 UAB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 39–39 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 42–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUL 46–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUL 49–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 53–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 56–21 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 25–46 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 28–42 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUL 32–39 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 35–35 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUL 39–32 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUL 42–28 UAB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUL 46–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 49–21 UAB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUL 53–18 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 21–42 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 25–39 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 28–35 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 32–32 UAB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUL 35–28 UAB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUL 39–25 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUL 42–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUL 46–18 UAB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 49–14 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 18–39 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 21–35 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 25–32 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 28–28 UAB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUL 32–25 UAB neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUL 35–21 UAB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUL 39–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUL 42–14 UAB neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUL 46–11 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 14–35 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUL 18–32 UAB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUL 21–28 UAB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUL 25–25 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUL 28–21 UAB neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUL 32–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUL 35–14 UAB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUL 39–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUL 42–7 UAB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUL 11–32 UAB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUL 14–28 UAB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUL 18–25 UAB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 21–21 UAB neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUL 25–18 UAB neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUL 28–14 UAB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUL 32–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 35–7 UAB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUL 39–4 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 7–28 UAB neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUL 11–25 UAB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUL 14–21 UAB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUL 18–18 UAB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUL 21–14 UAB neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUL 25–11 UAB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUL 28–7 UAB neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUL 32–4 UAB neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUL 35–0 UAB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUAB +21UAB +7UL +7UL +21UL +35margin →