AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Fri Sep 25 · 8:00 PM
#118Away
Army
0-0 · AVR 32.8
25p
#113Home
Temple
0-0 · AVR 34.9
30p
ARMY 36%64% TEM
Spread
TEM -4.8
Total
55
Moneyline
ARMY+174TEM-174
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARMY advantageevenTEM advantage →
ARMY throw
ARMY protection #8
ARMY +44
ARMY run
ARMY line #8ARMY backs #113
ARMY +49
TEM throw
TEM WR #46TEM protection #113
TEM +20
TEM run
TEM +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hellums
Kyle Kloska
vs
Quante Gillians
LT · ARMY
EDGE · TEM
85.4
50.2
ARMY +35
when ARMY throws
Brady Anderson
vs
Adrian Laing
X · ARMY
CB1 · TEM
60.0
72.1
TEM +12
when TEM throws
JoJo Bermudez
vs
Stephen Nnadozie
X · TEM
CB1 · ARMY
64.8
59.7
TEM +5
when ARMY runs
Carson Smith
vs
Curly Ordonez
RB · ARMY
MLB · TEM
51.4
61.6
TEM +10
over the middle
Peter Clarke
vs
Zane Tallman
TE · TEM
FS · ARMY
65.5
38.0
TEM +28
over the middle
Parker Poloskey
vs
Avery Powell
TE · ARMY
FS · TEM
54.8
44.8
ARMY +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Army
QBCale Hellums
64.257/308
WRBrady Anderson
60.0114/777
SStephen Nnadozie
59.7495/1427
TEParker Poloskey
54.892/287
CBJaydan Mayes
52.8682/1427
RBCarson Smith
51.4255/514
Temple
CBAdrian Laing
72.1188/1427
TEPeter Clarke
65.523/287
WRJoJo Bermudez
64.884/777
WRColin Chase
63.295/777
CBBryson Goodwin
61.7436/1427
LBCurly Ordonez
61.6260/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Army
opponent
Temple
away+0.2
Rice#127
+7.4home
home-7.5
South Florida#78
-10.3away
home-6.7
East Carolina#77
-9.4away
away-13.7
Memphis#63
-11.4away
neutral-7.4
Navy#82
-7.7away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTEM +4.895% interval: -19.1 to 28.780% interval: -12.6 to 22.2-13+22ARMY wins 36%TEM wins 64%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TEM 32–25 ARMYTEM 28–49 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 32–46 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 35–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 39–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTEM 42–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 46–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 49–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTEM 53–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 56–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTEM 25–46 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 28–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 32–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEM 35–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEM 39–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 42–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 46–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 49–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 53–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 21–42 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 25–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 28–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEM 32–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTEM 35–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEM 39–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTEM 42–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 46–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 49–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 18–39 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 21–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 25–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEM 28–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEM 32–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTEM 35–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEM 39–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 42–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 46–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 14–35 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTEM 18–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTEM 21–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEM 25–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTEM 28–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTEM 32–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 35–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTEM 39–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTEM 42–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTEM 11–32 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 14–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTEM 18–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTEM 21–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTEM 25–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTEM 28–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTEM 32–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTEM 35–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTEM 39–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTEM 7–28 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTEM 11–25 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTEM 14–21 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTEM 18–18 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTEM 21–14 ARMY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTEM 25–11 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTEM 28–7 ARMY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTEM 32–4 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTEM 35–0 ARMY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalARMY +21ARMY +7TEM +7TEM +21TEM +35margin →